It is a common belief with Premier League owners that sacking your manager will improve their clubs results, but is this really that case?
We look at whether teams sacking their manager has a short-term or a long-term impact on their side and whether it was better off sticking with the manager they had in the first place.
We have looked at all the managers that have been sacked by Premier League clubs in the 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 seasons.
First of all, we look at whether sacking your manager has a short-term impact on the teams performances. We have done this by comparing the previous managers last 6 matches to the new managers first 6 matches and looked at how many points were earned per match, how many goals were scored per match and how many goals were conceded per match.
Chris Hughton was the first Premier League manager to be sacked in the 2010/2011 season when he was replaced by Alan Pardew at Newcastle.
As you can see Pardew took one more point per match in his first six games in charge of Newcastle than Hughton did in his last six matches. Newcastle also scored 1 more goal per game and conceded 0.66 fewer goals per match in Pardew’s first six matches.
Sam Allardyce was then sacked by Blackburn a week after Hughton left Newcastle and his replacement was Steve Kean.
Kean took 0.33 fewer points per match in his first six matches in charge compared to Allardyce’s last six matches for Blackburn. Blackburn scored 0.66 fewer goals per match in Kean’s first six matches but did concede 0.66 fewer goals per match.
Roy Hodgson was replaced at Liverpool by Anfield legend Kenny Dalglish on the 8th January 2011 and Liverpool took 0.67 more points per match in King Kenny’s first six matches in charge. Liverpool also scored 0.34 more goals per match and conceded the same amount of goals per match in Kenny’s first six matches than they did in Hodgson’s final 6 Premier League matches at Liverpool.
Roberto Di Matteo was also sacked in the 2010/2011 season by West Brom and replaced by former Liverpool and now England manager Roy Hodgson. Hodgson made an immediate impact at The Hawthorns taking 2 points per match in his first 6 matches, which was 1.33 points per match better than West Brom took in Di Matteo’s final 6 matches. West Brom also scored 1 more goal per match and conceded 1 less goal per match in Hodgson’s first six games compared to Di Matteo’s final six matches.
Carlo Ancelotti was sacked by Chelsea at the end of the 2010/2011 season and replaced with Andre Villas-Boas for the start of the 2011/2012 Premier League season. Villas-Boas took 0.5 more points per match in his first six matches than Ancelotti did in his final six matches at Stamford Bridge, while Chelsea also scored 0.17 more goals per match in Villas-Boas’ first six matches and conceded the same amount of goals.
Martin O’Neil replaced Steve Bruce at Sunderland in November and had an instant impact on results by taking 2.17 points per match in his first six matches. This was 1.34 points per match more than Bruce took in his final six matches at Sunderland. Sunderland also scored 0.83 goals more per match and conceded 0.34 fewer goals per match in their first six matches under O’Neil than they did in the last six matches under Bruce.
Mark Hughes was brought in by QPR to replace Neil Warnock at Loftus Road in January 2012. Hughes took 0.5 more points per match , his team scored 0.66 more goals per match and conceded the same amount of goals per match in his first six matches than Warnock did in his last six matches
Wolves decided to sack long-term manager Mick McCarthy in February and replace him with McCarthy’s number two Terry Connor to try and help them avoid relegation from the Premier League (Editors Note: After every manager they approached knocked them back!). Connor didn’t impress in his first six matches though, as Wolves took 0.5 fewer points per match, scored 0.34 fewer goals per match and conceded 0.5 more goals per match than they did in McCarthy’s final six matches.
Finally, in March, Roman Abramovich made the decision to sack Andre Villas-Boas and replace him with fans favourite Roberto Di Matteo. This turned out to be a good move as Chelsea won the FA Cup, Champions League and took 0.87 points per match more in their first six Premier League games under Di Matteo than they did in Villas-Boas’ final six matches. Chelsea also scored 0.33 more goals per match and conceded 0.17 fewer goals per match in Di Matteo’s first six matches.
On average, in the last two seasons, the Premier League teams that have sacked their managers have made an improvement in the first six matches under their new managers (short term). The teams that sacked their managers took on average 0.59 more points per match in their first six matches than they did in the previous six matches under their old manager. The teams also scored 0.37 more goals per match and conceded 0.26 fewer goals per match in the first six games under their new managers.
Page 2 Quick Link: Longer Term results for 2010/11 and 2011/12 – How did the managers fair over a longer term?