Last season Newcastle were one of everybody’s favorite clubs. The Toon seemed to have a strong first eleven and a clear strategy on how to win games. A final league position of fifth was better than any supporter could have dreamt in just their second season back after relegation. Rightfully, earlier this year owner Mike Ashley rewarded Alan Pardew and his backroom staff with new eight-year contracts in the hope that they would continue to build the squad and eventually break into a coveted Champions League spot.
Things haven’t gone as planned. Currently Newcastle are in 14th place, just two points out of the relegation spots and with a congested December fixture list set to further test what looks like a very shallow squad. Some supporters have been blaming Pardew and the side for being content with last season’s success while an ever-growing contingent say that this is simply the Geordies regressing to the average after one exceptionally lucky season.
To truly understand where the truth the data must be examined. Below are highlights from Newcastle’s last four Premiership seasons. (2009-10, where Newcastle were brilliant but against Championship opposition, has not been included.)
[table id=131 /]
Making sense of this 130 game sample size, it seems that on average Newcastle are a team that achieves around 1.25 points per game, on pace to finish a season with 48 points. Even allowing for that relegation season to be an aberration the points per game value only rises to 1.39, which gives 53 points. Which makes them strictly a mid-table side, good for 8th in 2010-11 and 8th in 2011-12. From this analysis, it surely seems that that 2011-12 season is unlikely to be repeated. Looking at Newcastle’s Europa League excursions further proves this, as the Magpies qualified second in their group behind Bordeaux, averaging 1.5 points a game. Pretty consistent with expectations for a team looking to fight for position with the likes of Everton and Liverpool, not Arsenal and Tottenham.
Newcastle supporters may point to the undoubtedly smart investment in offensive players before the start of last season such as Demba Ba and Yohan Cabaye, and the further reinforcement of Papiss Cisse in January. However for all that attacking talent, Newcastle scored the same amount of goals when they finished 5th as they did when finishing 12th. And conceded only six less, hardly a recipe for a huge jump in league standing.
Looking at Newcastle’s outstanding results last season, it quickly becomes apparent how many factors went their way. That side knew how, (or was fortunate enough), to do just enough to win on an enormous amount of occasions. They never dominated sides, scoring a maximum of three goals in a single game, and even then only four times. Newcastle drew only eight games, (a rate of 21%, this season they draw about a third of their games), but won the same number by a single goal. Half of those winners came after half-time. They were held scoreless only six times but still only averaged 1.47 goals per game, by far and away the lowest of the top six and only slightly more than Norwich.
There was no European competition to tire the squad and they were fortunate enough to be knocked out of both cup competitions quite early on. In total last season Newcastle played only 43 matches. Already in December this year they’ve played 25, with the FA Cup and the knockout stage of the Europa League still to come.
The extra matches are taking a toll, with some of last season’s standout performers such as Cabaye and Ryan Taylor suffering long-term injuries that further hurt Newcastle’s competitiveness. Last season their first eleven were able to play almost every game, with an established back line consisting mainly of Fabricio Coloccini, Ryan Taylor, Danny Simpson and Tim Krul contributing to their best ever defensive performance in recent times. Even noted injury worries Hatem Ben Arfa and Demba Ba played 29 and 35 games respectively.
The bad luck suffered by Newcastle may mean that they underperform this season, but it doesn’t disguise the fact that last season quite a lot of things went right for an extremely driven side. That performance just isn’t sustainable and Alan Pardew has a lot of building left to do improving the squad before they can consistently challenge the best teams in England.
