HomeTeams - PLArsenalArsenal Show Clinical Edge to Rise Above Manchester City

Arsenal Show Clinical Edge to Rise Above Manchester City

In a season where no one seems to want to win the league, Arsenal may have just taken a huge step towards winning it with their 2-1 win over Manchester City.  It’s too early to say this game will be decisive in the title race, but it’s a huge result for Arsenal nonetheless.

Arsene Wenger cited last season’s win at the Etihad as a turning point for his squad, and there were some similarities between the two performances.  The Gunners had only 37% possession – once again ceding the ball to City, defending deep, and playing on the counter attack.

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The Gunners clearly wanted to play on the counter, but there were times in the first half an hour where they committed men forward and City countered on them. The midfield two of Mathieu Flamini and Aaron Ramsey was thought of as a weak point going in and they were being exposed on the counter early, as City cut through the middle of the park with little resistance multiple times.  That all changed when Arsenal went 2-0 up in the last 15 minutes of the half.  The two goal cushion gave them the ability to sit even deeper and contain City, helping them get their eventual 2-1 victory.

Expected goals chart from http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/.  To see full advanced stats page go here: http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/2/12/5404348/english-premier-league-shot-statistics
Expected goals chart from http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/. To see full advanced stats page go here: http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/2/12/5404348/english-premier-league-shot-statistics

Arsenal were clinical in the first half scoring with their only shots.  They haven’t always been clinical this season.  Expected goals or xG is a metric that measures the quality of chances (If you want to learn more about Michael Caley’s expected goals model go here), and no team has under performed on their expected goals this season like Arsenal.  Going into this game Arsenal had scored 29 goals, while they were expected to score 34.  No one else has such a gap between expected goals and actual goals with the next highest under performance coming from Stoke City whose actual goals are 2.6 below their expected goals.

First half expected goals map of Manchester City vs Arsenal from Michael Caley (Follow him on twitter @MC_of_A)
First half expected goals map of Manchester City vs Arsenal from Michael Caley (Follow him on twitter @MC_of_A)

Arsenal showed a clinical edge in this game finishing their only two chances in the first half, which had a combined xG of only 0.2.  Those were half chances at best, but the Gunners were clinical in taking them.  That was the difference in the game as less than 90 seconds before Theo Walcott’s opening goal Kevin De Bruyne missed a guilt-edged chance to put City 1-0 up.

Full time expected goals map again from Michael Caley (Follow him on twitter @MC_of_A)
Full time expected goals map again from Michael Caley (Follow him on twitter @MC_of_A)

In the second half, the Gunners were not quite so clinical, but they had already done the damage.  They were allowed to sit and play on the break without committing too many men forward and did not get caught on the break as often.  They actually created better chances than City in the second half and easily could have scored three or four goals to put the game away.  Luckily for Arsenal, the two goals when they were clinical gave them the ability to sit back and defend.  They defended very well and limited their opponents to shots from areas of the pitch that aren’t very dangerous.  City’s goal came from a moment of sheer brilliance from Yaya Toure, but Arsene Wenger’s men were able to sit deep and hold their shape the entire second half, covering up their possible weakness in central midfield, and helping them win the game.

Big games have been a problem for Arsenal in the past, and in past big games they’ve not taken their early chances.  Just over 12 months ago, Arsenal dominated Manchester United at home, but didn’t take their chances and ended up losing 2-1.  Since then, Arsenal have shown their ability to take their chances and win games against the likes of Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Manchester United twice, and Manchester City twice.  Monday’s result was just another example of Arsenal’s evolution into genuine title contenders.

thejerseyfitz
thejerseyfitz
Follow me on twitter @The_Jersey_Fitz.
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