After a humiliating 4-0 defeat at the hands of Southampton, Arsenal bounced back to comfortably beat Bournemouth 2-0. Goals from Gabriel and Mesut Ozil along with a solid defensive performance sent the Gunners top for at least a day. After missing their chance to go top of the table on Boxing Day, Arsene Wenger’s men took their chance this time.
Despite a rough first 15 minutes, the Gunners took down their opponents with relative ease. Bournemouth didn’t have too many chances where as Arsenal could have scored four or five. This game was all about the first goal. If Bournemouth got it it could have been a tricky game for Arsenal, but as soon as the Gunners scored first everyone felt like that was all but game over.
Getting the first goal is about as important for Arsenal as it is for any team. Since their comeback win against Crystal Palace on the opening day of the 2014-2015 season, Arsenal have only come back from behind to win once, in their 5-2 victory over Leicester. They have not come from behind to win when down at half time since their 5-3 win against Chelsea in October 2011. Clearly they are not great at chasing the game when a goal down.
Chance creation wise, the first 15 minutes of Arsenal’s games against Southampton and Bournemouth actually look very similar. Above is the expected goal* map for the Southampton game and below is the map for the Bournemouth game, both created by @11tegen11. While most expected goals maps show the chances for the entire game in one picture, these show when the chance creation happened.
As the maps show, the first 15 minutes of each game were very similar. Neither team created any notable chances. Then in each match the team that went on to win scored with their first shot on target. In Arsenal’s loss, Southampton’s Cuco Martina opened the scoring with a Roberto Carlos esce shot from 25 yards out. This forced Arsenal to chase the game and allowed the Saints to sit back and exploit Arsenal on the counter attack. When the Saints scored a controversial goal with their second shot on target, the Gunners threw caution to the wind and were caught out two more times.
In Arsenal’s win over Bournemouth, Gabriel got away from his marker on a corner and scored his first Arsenal goal with the Gunners first shot. This had the opposite effect of the Southampton goal, both calming the players nerves and allowing them to be more patient in attack. They ended up limiting the Cherries to low percentage shots from the edge of the area and the second goal all but ended the match as a contest.
For good or for bad, Arsenal may rely on scoring the first goal more than any other top team in the Premier League. When they score the first goal, they tend to protect their lead well. When they go behind, they usually struggle to turn it around. Against Bournemouth the Gunners were able to grab the first goal, won comfortably, and were able to get their title chase back on track.
*Expected goals is a metric that measures the quality of chances as well as the quantity.
