Last but not least our centre back pairing has come under much debate lately. In fact, it’s become a mystery as to why Steve Clarke and Dalglish continue to use Carragher as a right centre back. Firstly, Carragher has played left centre back plenty of times and is well used to that position, and secondly, why move Skrtel, our best defender this season, out to left centre back to accommodate Carragher? Would it not make more sense to have Carragher left centre back and Skrtel right centre back?
Two positions they are both comfortable at playing. Whatever the reason it is not working, the second QPR goal was conceded from an error on that side of the defence, and also the Wigan winner was also scored from that zone. This led me to investigate the matter further. Over the last 7 games Liverpool’s opposition passes to the left has increased dramatically.
Coincidentally coinciding with Agger getting injured and Carragher coming back into the team. In the preceding 23 games opposition teams on average only made 7% of their passes to the left (our right). In the last 7 games that has increased to 24%. The question is, is this just a coincidence, or are opposition teams now targeting our right side by directing more of their passes there? Remember Johnson is injured as well, and Kelly is now covering for him. So maybe they are looking to exploit Kelly/Flanagan and Carragher on that side. Wigan certainly did, as you can see from the StatZone graphic they really did direct most of their attacking play down Liverpool’s right side where Flanagan and Carragher operated.
This is why I believe it is imperative that we start with Skrtel on his favoured right side of centre back and bring in Coates to the left. Considering Newcastle direct most of their play down their left (our right) I really fear for us on Sunday if we start with the same positional back four as against Wigan.
With all the talk of bringing Carroll into the team, one man not talked about who has been out of the team lately is Agger. In my opinion that has really had a negative influence on the defensive performance of the team. Take a look the attached table.
I have calculated how we have performed with and without both Carragher and Agger in the team. Only games where the player has played more than 45 minutes have been taken into account. With Agger in the team we were conceding 0.84 goals per game and without him that has jumped to 1.36 goals per game. That is just over 0.50 goals per game.
Over a season that is the difference of conceding nearly 20 goals more without Agger in the team. Carragher’s figures show the opposite. The team concede more with him playing, 1.21 goals per game, and only 0.87 goals per game without him. That is a difference of 0.34 goals per game less without him. Over a 38 game season that amounts to nearly 13 goals less conceded without Carragher in the team. The opposition don’t seem to have any more or any less shots or more frequently/infrequently with either Agger/Carragher in or out of the team. However, the opposition are more accurate with their shots when Carragher plays – on target with 43% of their shots when he plays, and only accurate with 38% of their shots when Agger plays. Lastly when Agger plays we win 42.1% of our games, compared to when Carragher plays we win 35.7% of our games. I’m am not Carragher bashing at all, I think he has been a fantastic servant to Liverpool, however, he is not having a great season, and perhaps its time to give Coates an extended run in the team whilst Agger is injured. Food for thought. Here’s to 3 points and a win.
All of the stats from this article have been taken from the Opta Stats Centre at EPLIndex.com – Subscribe Now (Includes author privileges!) See Demo’s and videos about the Stats Centre & read about new additions to the stats centre.
