A number of defenders have recently been touted for moves to Arsenal or another Champions League club by the close of this summers transfer window. As Arsene Wenger and his cohort look around the Premier League to draft in replacements their attention has not, at least in the tabloids, turned their collective eyes towards the Reebok. I realize even mentioning that Cahill may not be long for a Wanderers jersey is a painful thought for many but not one which anyone, least of all Owen Coyle, is blind to. With no bids as yet tabled for the 25 year defender, we can still examine the value he will have going forward for the Wanderers, and illustrate exactly how important he is and will be to Coyle building a successful squad.
Bolton is one of the few teams who will be returning every useful player on their defense. The quintet of Cahill (37 starts* / 0 subs), Robinson (36), Knight (34), Steinsson (24) and Rickets (14/3) made essentially every start for the Wanderers in the 4 spots in front of Jussi Jasskelainen (himself making 35 starts). The five of them combined to allow 56 goals in 38 EPL matches and as a result kept only 5 clean sheets for the season. Coyle has brought in just two players thus far this summer, Darren Pratley from Swansea and Nigel Reo-Coker from Aston Villa, and both are midfielders. Perhaps the most important statistics for this group is a simple one, age. At 25 Cahill is the only player who will not be 30 by seasons end with Steinsson and Ricketts, both 29, the youngest of the others. Zat Knight is now 31, and has more than a decade of games played on his legs, while the eldest, Robinson, is 32.  With young ‘keeper Adam Bogdan just 23 (and signed to a new deal that will keep him at the Reebok until the end of 2014) it is reasonable to believe he’ll be succeeding Jasskelinen sooner than later. Jussi’s contract is up at the end of the season and the 36 year old, who already has more than 500 appearances for the club, could well be in his final year. Certainly the transition would be more successful playing with a solid defense.
To field a solid defense Coyle will be waiting on the full fitness of both Zat Knight (recovering from a February knee injury) and Samuel Ricketts (a February achilles tear). Before being able to deploy his first choice defense, which will likely look the same as it did last season with Robinson to the left, Knight/Cahill paired in the center and Steinsson on the right, Coyle will also need to ensure Steinsson suffers no recurrence of his own knee injuries. Should he, it would be Ricketts on the right.  The key to their success this year is the same as it will be moving forward, the continued presence of Gary Cahill in the center of the defense.
Bolton relied on their defense to make a large percentage of their possession duel and aerial duel challenges. Bolton as a team had 4466 possession duels and won 2365 of them (53%). They also had 1430 aerial duels and won 785 of those (55%). Among the defenders, Gary Cahill was clearly the most active at winning these challenges.
This quintet of defenders accounted for 318 of the aerial duels won by the Bolton squad, or 41%. Further, of the 2,365 possession duels won by Bolton, the defender’s 810 wins accounted for 34%. The leader of the defence, Cahill was won 63% of his 225 aerial duels and 64% of his 414 possession duels.
Further, Cahill partnered with Zat Knight to form an impressive duo in the heart of the defense. Together they accounted for 414 of Bolton’s 806 effective clearances and 245 of their 446 effective headed clearances. Cahill led the defense (or was second to Knight) in nearly every other important defensive statistic. Without a doubt he was the integral part of Owen Coyle’s defense and, as a result, the team. However, the value of a player like Cahill is determined best not by comparing him simply against his teammates but by examining him against the league to determine where he rates and who are comparable players. To this end, we’ve examined his defensive statistics, together with total touches and open play passes, against 4 players regarded as the best center halves in the EPL. To make it fun we’ve chosen two who are stalwarts for their respective clubs and two who, while stalwart for their club, can not escape the transfer gossip this summer: Nemanja Vidic, Phil Jagielka, Martin Skrtel,and Chris Samba.
Cahill does more than hold his own, he stands out even when compared to the best the Premier League has to offer. In a team where he is called upon every time down the pitch to prove his worth, he does so. Cahill was successful on 58% of his clearances. A quick glance upwards shows that he attempted more clearances than the other 4 (and 53 more than 2nd most Vidic) and yet still converted those clearances successfully more frequently. Cahill’s 58% successful clearance rate is better than Vidic (48%) and Jags (51%) and comparable to Skrtel (57%) and Samba (56%). However, Cahill attempted nearly 100 more clearances than either Skrtel or Samba.
Even when considering the minimal difference in minutes played, Cahill’s per minute statistics are exceptional. In fact, matches started and minutes played are particularly important when considering these players as a large part of these defenders value is derived not only in from exceptional play, but also because they are consistent week-to-week and match fit for their managers to call upon. Considering the recent history of English and Premier League center-halves players like Jonathan Woodgate and Ledley King come to mind as much for the many matches they’ve missed as for the endless potential they possess(ed).
Cahill’s weakness is clearly his ‘on the ball’ time, as he had a lower successful passing rate than his contemporaries and he lost possession considerably more frequently. Despite this, Cahill’s defensive strengths are still notable here.  He led all of his comps in possession duels attempted and won, and in aerial duels attempted and won. Simply put, he was called on more frequently to win 50/50 balls for Bolton than any other center half considered here. This is unsurprising as he was part of a defense that conceded more chances and more chances in the box (only Blackburn conceded more than Bolton’s 56 of the teams considered here), ultimately leading to more goals conceded and the fewest clean sheets (5). With more matches he will undoubtedly find the game more naturally and we can expect that his passing % would rise while his loss of possession similarly decreased.
At just 25 Cahill has plenty of time to grow as a player. He looks set to become a regular for England and should be able to use his eventual international experience to perfect his skills, further enhancing his abilities. He still has a couple of years before reaching his expected peak and Bolton could have one of the premier center-halves in the EPL marshal-ling their back line for years to come, provided they’re able to keep his eventual suitors at bay. Make no mistake, Cahill is already one of the best at his position playing in England today.
*Interestingly, Opta Sports Data lists Cahill as having started 37 games, while Bolton’s own site lists him with 36. We’ve used the starts from Opta here as they’ve provided the rest of the stats.
 for EPLIndex.com){kind=link}