HomeFeatured ArticlesThe Curious Case of Javier Hernandez | Player stats analysis

The Curious Case of Javier Hernandez | Player stats analysis

Hernandez: Right Place at the Right Time

Based on the statistics, there is no denying Hernández’s talents as a goal poacher. He is one of those few strikers with the uncanny ability to be at the right place at the right time. His movement in the penalty box is exemplary, and he can seemingly score with any part of his body (except his hands, of course). His pace, too, is a definite asset when it comes to outrunning and beating players, and it fits perfectly with United’s quick, attacking play.

Javier Hernandez: is he good enough to stay at Manchester United?

What’s more, a quick look at his goal scoring record for Mexico should make any manager, teammate, or fan salivate. Despite being only 24 years old, he has scored 28 goals in only 43 appearances! That is 0.65 goals per game, more that a goal in every other game. This is a phenomenal return considering that it is arguably more difficult to perform consistently at the international level.

To be fair, though, Hernández has had his fair share of critics as well. Some have said that he can be rather one-dimensional: he is supposedly at his best against a team with a high defensive line, where he sticks with the last man and beats the offside trap to go clear on goal. Criticism is also leveled at his skill and technique, which are not perceived to be at the levels of Rooney, Van Persie, and, I dare say, even Welbeck. It seems that his over-reliance on pace has led to predictability and defenders dealing with him better.

Hernandez: Defensive Contribution

In addition, a comparison of Hernández’s defending and passing statistics with the average United team show that his all-round play is poorer than the norm.

Table 4: Hernandez Defensive Comparison with Average United Player

From Table 4, we can see a summary of his defensive performance compared to the average for the entire Manchester United squad. In the 2010/2011 season, Hernández’s ground 50-50s win percentage, aerial 50-50s win percentage, and tackle success percentage were all significantly lower than the average United player. Notice also that his passing completion rate barely surpassed the average United player. This was almost the case in the 2011/2012 season too, where his ground 50-50s win percentage and aerial 50-50s percentage were lower than the Manchester United average. His tackling, though, improved to 77.78%, higher than the average United player. The comparison for this season might be a bit premature, so it would be interesting to see if he improves in the aforementioned statistics. One might also justifiably argue that, since Hernández is an all-out attacking player, we should not be too hard on his defensive capabilities.

Defense aside, the ever-present rumours about United’s interest in bringing in players such as Dortmund’s Robert Lewandowski puts Hernández’s future under further scrutiny. Should Ferguson bring in another striker, it seems that the Mexican’s place is under the most immediate threat, as he gets fewer games to prove himself, compared to the other strikers. Angelo Henriquez’s arrival from Chile last August has not helped Hernández’s cause, either, further exacerbated by the fact that Henriquez has yet to be sent out on loan and continues to train with the first team squad.

Final Word

It seems that Hernández is the type who needs to play consistently to score goals. Just look at his contribution when he starts games, or when he plays for Mexico!

Based on the statistics mentioned earlier, Hernández should be starting games and given more playing time to prove that he is worthy of playing for United in the long run. However, United’s ever-burgeoning strike-force poses the biggest obstacle to him realising this ambition. Sir Alex will have a tough decision to make regarding Hernández’s place in the squad. Take this weekend’s fixture against Chelsea, for example. Will Hernández start? Such a decision could well have a lasting impact on his position at the club. Let’s see how it pans out.

All of the stats from this article have been taken from the Opta Stats Centre at EPLIndex.comSubscribe Now (Includes author privileges!) Check out our new Top Stats feature on the Stats Centre which allows you to compare all players in the league & read about new additions to the stats centre.

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