HomeZ OLD CATEGORIESArsenal (NN)How Well Does Your Team "Fightback" When Conceding 1st? I Stats Analysis

How Well Does Your Team “Fightback” When Conceding 1st? I Stats Analysis

Relegation Threatened Teams “FightBack” Analysis

Looking at the relegation battle we see that Norwich have had an excellent season as they have consolidated on last season. I wonder if they will consolidate further next season or will they be seen to have over achieved this season.

The limitation of football models is that last season predictive models around the country gave Wigan a 81% probability of going down but they stayed up. I have not read any explanation of how they raised their game for the last few months against tough and motivated teams.

I believe that Reading (1.2) and QPR(1.58) will be relegated but the third relegation spot will be contested between Wigan (2.92), Southampton (2.3) and Aston Villa (2.90) and it could be a battle till the final whistle of the last game of the season. I personally would have Wigan as my choice as I cannot explain how they avoided relegation last season and nothing to indicate that they can avoid the trap door again.

In conclusion I leave with the thought that apart from shot strength, all the other data is available, but the problem is interpretation of the data as Newcastle season ticket holders may find they will be looking up road maps of Blackpool in the not too distant future. As a a writer of football articles I now realise that quoting figures that people cannot quantify does not help to broaden the appeal of raw data so in this article I have attempted a more user friendly approach and I hope it has worked.

Lastly here are a few graphs to show how consistently teams have faired in terms of their positions in the Premier League since 2008/09:

FightBack Analysis Quick Navigation

Top 6 Fightback Analysis | Mid-Table Fightback Analysis | Relegation Threatened Fightback Analysis

Jonny Grossmark
Jonny Grossmark
My first taste of football in a stadium was Gillingham V Aston Villa 1971 and I still have the programme which cost 5p. I have been lucky to have seen a number of Cup Finals but missed the Sunderland goal in 1973 as I was in the toliet. I have recently been watching Margate and also watch around 50 other matches a month on my computer .
More News