Prediction Model: Week 28 | Liverpool and Chelsea to win, Arsenal to lose!


It’s a prediction model update without the usual preamble this week. The @data_monkey household has gained a new member and although he shares a first name with Leo Messi, he doesn’t share his enthusiasm for football. Or my enthusiasm for football stats. (Yet).

Premier League Predictions Week 28

The model’s fairly quick to update so I’ll keep posting predictions here each week, but detailed discussion of the forecasts and past performances might be a bit thin on the ground for a few weeks. Normal service will resume when I’ve had some sleep!

Here are this week’s percentages:


And deeper possession and goalscoring stats:

1-3 Deeper

And finally, the model’s result predictions:

Everton v West Ham United – Draw
Fulham v Chelsea – Away Win
Hull City v Newcastle United – Draw
Stoke City v Arsenal – Home Win
Southampton v Liverpool – Away Win
Aston Villa v Norwich City – Draw
Swansea City v Crystal Palace – Home Win
Tottenham Hotspur v Cardiff City – Draw

Lots of draws on the list this week, using our standard rule of calling a draw when the predicted likelihood is over 27%. Arsenal’s prediction is an odd one and the model was very wrong last week when it gave Sunderland a decent chance at the Emirates. Could Stoke spring an upset?

See you next week.


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