EPL Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man Utd to win

EPL Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man Utd to win

Back from the FA Cup weekend and I've been using the gap in the Premier League fixture list to further develop the EPL Model. Unfortunately, this time without much success. An agent based model isn't like the majority of statistical models, where if you make a change you can usually see fairly quickly whether or not your new model is better than the old one. When I change the EPL Model, I re-run a season (at least) of historical fixtures …
Prediction Model: WK 21 | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea all to win

Prediction Model: WK 21 | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea all to win

The model really showed what it can do over the Christmas period, putting in a solid set of predictions for rounds 18 to 20 (Boxing Day to New Year) and bringing back a very nice return if you were using it to bet. Overall, it picked 18 results from the 30 games and finished with an average profit of 34% per bet. If you'd staked £10 per game - £300 in total for the three rounds - you'd have won …
Prediction Model: Liverpool, Arsenal to win | Chelsea, Man Utd to lose

Prediction Model: Liverpool, Arsenal to win | Chelsea, Man Utd to lose

We're just about at the halfway mark in the season and the model's been flying over the Christmas period. Up 35% at the bookies in the past two rounds, with six results out of ten called correctly on Boxing Day and seven out of ten last weekend. When I first started putting these models together, I was surprised at how few results the bookies actually get right. That's not to say the model's better! But I had the impression that …
EPL Prediction Model | Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd to win & Chelsea to lose!

EPL Prediction Model | Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd to win & Chelsea to lose!

The new passing algorithm's off to a flying start and gave us a late Christmas present on Boxing Day, with six results out of ten called correctly, including Crystal Palace's away win at Villa. As is (almost) always the case, the model missed one result by quite a distance, this time in its suggestion that Cardiff would beat Southampton. Managerial sub-plots and teams that don't turn up on the day are always going to be a problem for a model …
Prediction Model Boxing Day Forecasts: Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd to win, Liverpool to lose

Prediction Model Boxing Day Forecasts: Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd to win, Liverpool to lose

Close but no cigar in the pre-Christmas fixtures as the model missed four results by just one goal. We got the games at Swansea, Liverpool and Palace correct and the controversial calls of Man U to draw and Man City to struggle against Fulham turned out to be inaccurate, rather than clever. Fulham did give Man City a brief scare and - as the model suggested they would - scored more than once, but it's results that count. I've been …
EPL Prediction Model: Wk 16 Forecasts | City to beat Arsenal & Spurs over Liverpool

EPL Prediction Model: Wk 16 Forecasts | City to beat Arsenal & Spurs over Liverpool

Well last week was definitely a roller-coaster. Almost brilliant. So close! But ultimately disappointing. The model made two very big calls last week; it said Manchester United could lose at home to Newcastle and that Southampton had a good chance of beating Manchester City at St Mary's. Man United first and while the model gave some people a cracking start to the weekend (says Twitter) as they backed Newcastle, I decided to wait and see if van Persie was starting. …
Prediction Model: Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool to win, City to Smash 5?

Prediction Model: Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool to win, City to Smash 5?

We've got a big week coming up, with a full schedule of games on Saturday and Sunday and then again in mid-week. Just this weekend's predictions for the moment and then I'll try to get a post up on Sunday or Monday for the next set. Partly, we'll need to adjust for any injuries that come up on Saturday and Sunday so that the starting line-ups in the model for the mid-week round will be as accurate as possible. I'm …
Premier League Prediction Model: Week 11 Forecasts | United Vs Arsenal

Premier League Prediction Model: Week 11 Forecasts | United Vs Arsenal

Round one of the results prediction model went ok, so here we go with my numbers for Saturday 9th and Sunday 10th November. I've been making a few small changes to the model based on last week - nothing too drastic, but it's encountering some new problems with shortages of data that I didn't have last season. I first started building these models in the second half of last season so there were always at least 20 games worth of …
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