EPL Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man Utd to win

EPL Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man Utd to win

Back from the FA Cup weekend and I've been using the gap in the Premier League fixture list to further develop the EPL Model. Unfortunately, this time without much success. An agent based model isn't like the majority of statistical models, where if you make a change you can usually see fairly quickly whether or not your new model is better than the old one. When I change the EPL Model, I re-run a season (at least) of historical fixtures …
Prediction Model: WK 21 | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea all to win

Prediction Model: WK 21 | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea all to win

The model really showed what it can do over the Christmas period, putting in a solid set of predictions for rounds 18 to 20 (Boxing Day to New Year) and bringing back a very nice return if you were using it to bet. Overall, it picked 18 results from the 30 games and finished with an average profit of 34% per bet. If you'd staked £10 per game - £300 in total for the three rounds - you'd have won …
Prediction Model: Liverpool, Arsenal to win | Chelsea, Man Utd to lose

Prediction Model: Liverpool, Arsenal to win | Chelsea, Man Utd to lose

We're just about at the halfway mark in the season and the model's been flying over the Christmas period. Up 35% at the bookies in the past two rounds, with six results out of ten called correctly on Boxing Day and seven out of ten last weekend. When I first started putting these models together, I was surprised at how few results the bookies actually get right. That's not to say the model's better! But I had the impression that …
Prediction Model Boxing Day Forecasts: Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd to win, Liverpool to lose

Prediction Model Boxing Day Forecasts: Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd to win, Liverpool to lose

Close but no cigar in the pre-Christmas fixtures as the model missed four results by just one goal. We got the games at Swansea, Liverpool and Palace correct and the controversial calls of Man U to draw and Man City to struggle against Fulham turned out to be inaccurate, rather than clever. Fulham did give Man City a brief scare and - as the model suggested they would - scored more than once, but it's results that count. I've been …
Prediction Model: Wk 14 Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd to win

Prediction Model: Wk 14 Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd to win

Let's kick off with a quick round-up of Saturday and Sunday before we get onto the midweek game predictions... The past weekend went fairly well, with a small 5% profit if you were betting on the EPL Model's calls. We got six out of ten results correct, with the games at Chelsea, Man City, Cardiff, Everton, Norwich and Newcastle all running as forecast. Fulham was the big miss this week, with a predicted draw coming out as a comfortable West …
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