EPL Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man Utd to win

EPL Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man Utd to win

Back from the FA Cup weekend and I've been using the gap in the Premier League fixture list to further develop the EPL Model. Unfortunately, this time without much success. An agent based model isn't like the majority of statistical models, where if you make a change you can usually see fairly quickly whether or not your new model is better than the old one. When I change the EPL Model, I re-run a season (at least) of historical fixtures …
Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool to win, Man Utd to beat Chelsea?

Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool to win, Man Utd to beat Chelsea?

Last week marked the model's best performance so far this season, with eight correct predictions out of ten and a profit of 64% if you followed its calls for betting. Although maybe we shouldn't get too carried away with that one as the FT reports that a lot of people did very well on round 21 and the bookies suffered an awful weekend. Coral called it one of their worst weeks in 88 years. Those bad results for the bookies …
EPL Prediction Model | Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd to win & Chelsea to lose!

EPL Prediction Model | Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd to win & Chelsea to lose!

The new passing algorithm's off to a flying start and gave us a late Christmas present on Boxing Day, with six results out of ten called correctly, including Crystal Palace's away win at Villa. As is (almost) always the case, the model missed one result by quite a distance, this time in its suggestion that Cardiff would beat Southampton. Managerial sub-plots and teams that don't turn up on the day are always going to be a problem for a model …
EPL Prediction Model 17 | Liverpool & Arsenal to win, United draw?

EPL Prediction Model 17 | Liverpool & Arsenal to win, United draw?

Well last week was definitely more like it! We've been due one of those. I mentioned early in this series of posts that my predictive model was developed through the second half of last season and so in the past, it's always had plenty of data to work with. Starting from the 10th week of this season was a bit of an experiment and has led to more volatile performances than it's seen before and a couple of disappointing weeks. …
Prediction Model: Wk 14 Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd to win

Prediction Model: Wk 14 Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd to win

Let's kick off with a quick round-up of Saturday and Sunday before we get onto the midweek game predictions... The past weekend went fairly well, with a small 5% profit if you were betting on the EPL Model's calls. We got six out of ten results correct, with the games at Chelsea, Man City, Cardiff, Everton, Norwich and Newcastle all running as forecast. Fulham was the big miss this week, with a predicted draw coming out as a comfortable West …
Premier League Results Predictor Model: Round 10 results | How many were correct?

Premier League Results Predictor Model: Round 10 results | How many were correct?

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