Whilst it has been shown that the defences could be key, the form of the attacking players does look the likely difference maker. Both Sergio Aguero and Wayne Rooney notched again at the weekend and have – along with Robin van Persie – been the three élite attacking players this season in many of the key categories, as this look at their respective numbers shows. We know that both sides have the capacity to score goals and are both comfortably the highest scorers in the Premier League, what does this actually mean for them? Does scoring a amount of goals generally ensure victory? The following table shows the respective of the sides when scoring a certain number of goals:
And contrasting this, we can now repeat the exercise for goals conceded:
In terms of goals scored there is very little to choose between the two and there no obvious traits or advantages shown. In terms of goals conceded however there is an interesting comparison between the two when conceding just a solitary goal. Whilst City have post eight wins in these situations, they have drawn two and lost four, whereas United have won seven of their eleven and tasted defeat just once.
This suggests at least that if United do score once then the odds of City getting victory are less likely perhaps than if they get the one goal, something that is backed also by their record when failing to net more than once.
Of course, if the game is tight then the first goal is often so crucial and we can see quite how important this will be on Monday when comparing the sides respective records depending on who takes the lead and also how likely they are depending upon the score at half-time:
Also interesting to look at is if the game is tight, who this may help. With good goalscoring records both sides have understandably registered some huge wins (none more so than City’s 6-1 demolition of United at Old Trafford of course), but there is an interesting comparison between the two when looking at their respective records for different margins of victory:
Interesting here is that City have yet to be beaten by more than one goal, whereas of United’s four defeats, one was by three goals and one was the 6-1 at Old Trafford. Does this therefore suggest if the game is tight (as many are predicting) United hold the advantage? City have certainly been capable of beating teams convincingly but further to this four of their five one-goal game defeats have been 1-0: defensively tight still but frustrated in attack. Can United do effect a game plan for this – and City’s recent record in this fixture is not one that indicates a plethora of goals – or given City’s weapons in attack do United come out and try to take the game to City; greater risk certainly but potentially a greater reward.
The game has been termed as ‘unmissable’ by Sky Sports and the intrigue is heightened further by the fact that there are so many key areas and sub-plots that will determine the outcome of the game, and possibly the title itself. Often it is fine margins that such games are decided and in a game where goals are not widely anticipated this is proven even more so.
What a fascinating encounter we have in prospect.
