This weekend will see struggling Sunderland face Arsenal at the Stadium Of Light in a match where the focus will be more on one player than the other 21 on the pitch, and perhaps more than either of the clubs as a whole.
Mesut Ozil is the name on every Gooners lips, as well as every other fan around the country. The German’s playmaking services were acquired in an uncharacteristic swoop by Arsene Wenger, to make him the club’s outstanding record signing at £42.5 million. The move has eclipsed most other recent news in the Premier League and you can be sure that TV cameras will be pointing at him on Saturday.
Sunderland come into this game with one point from three games, and sit one spot from the bottom of the league as a result, ahead of West Brom, only alphabetically. Their results have included a home loss to Fulham, an away draw to Southampton and an away loss to Crystal Palace. Indeed, Sunderland have not looked convincing at all so far and Paolo Di Canio has been publicly vocal in his criticism of the team.
After losing to Crystal Palace, Di Canio lamented the “poor and pathetic” goals that were conceded by the team early on and towards the end. He accused the team of playing without fire and without desire, through long periods of the game, and criticised them for not taking advantage of the momentum that they had gained by equalising from 1-0 down. There was one quote in particular that was telling about his feeling towards the team – “What do you have to do? I cannot change the heart of my players.”
Extreme public criticism of the heart of the players, as well as their actual quality is a daring tactic. There are some that will take it as a personal challenge and rise to prove him wrong, but often such a display will do nothing but reduce morale in the camp. This is how he worked at Swindon during their resurgence however, so only time will tell whether it was this form of management (or money) that led him to do so well with his former club. At least one positive that can be taken from the Crystal Palace game was the return of Steven Fletcher. He equalised with a well taken header, getting his season off the mark nice and early, and having him back may make a big difference in Sunderland’s upcoming games.
Arsenal may have started the season with a shock 3 – 1 defeat to Aston Villa at home, but they’ve gone nowhere but up ever since. They bounced back from defeat to win 3 – 1 at Fulham, qualify for the Champions League group stage and downed Tottenham at the Emirates. Whilst qualifying for the group stages of the Champions League was a task that was expected of Arsenal, victory against Tottenham was a moment of pure euphoria, that was only heightened by the signing of Ozil soon after. Indeed there is high contrast to the states in which each team shall be entering this match.
As I have said, Ozil will be the focus of the game and his presence will undoubtedly improve Arsenal. That said, since his signature many have poured water on the fire, by saying that the Gunners have done nothing but strengthen what was already the strongest part of the team. With cover required in defence, and a striker needed to convert the many chances that Arsenal create (although Giroud is doing a better job of that so far this season), in some ways the transfer has been perceived as buying an expensive sofa to fix a leaky roof. Indeed, such individuals have a point, but it shouldn’t dampen the spirit of Arsenal fans who now know, as does everybody else, that their club will once again compete in the transfer market. The message has been sent to the world.
Interesting Stats
Sunderland have won just 8 points from their last 17 Premier League games against Arsenal and the last 6 league matches staged at the Stadium Of Light have produced only 9 goals, with Fletcher scoring nine of his away from home.
Olivier Giroud has scored in three matches in a row, although has never scored any of his 14 Premier League goals away from London. Can he match Jose Antonio Reyes’ record of scoring in each of the first 5 games of the season, as the latter did in 2004/05?
Key Players
The return of Steven Fletcher was a significant moment for Sunderland fans, and they will be hoping that it will show equally significant returns on the pitch. The ankle injury that had kept him out since March now looks to be a thing of the past, and the team now has its 2012/13 top scorer back.
Steven Fletcher managed to score 11 goals last season in 28 appearances, meaning that he scored a goal on average every 216 minutes. He had a shooting accuracy of 65% and a clear-cut chance conversion of 46%, and while his actual goals tally isn’t outstanding for a striker, those figures are very good. Essentially what Sunderland need to do his provide him with more service, because last season he only managed a shot every 55 minutes, whereas the top strikers will average a shot something closer to every 20 minutes. Feed the man and he will score, and so if Sunderland can get Fletcher into the game he will certainly prove to be their key player.
Everyone can see it coming – Mesut Ozil is my pick for Arsenal’s key player this Saturday, not only because he is their best player, but also because now I get to talk about him again! So basically he’s really good at football. With 25 starts, and 9 more from the bench, he scored 9 goals and managed 13 assists for Madrid last season. It is his playmaking ability for which he is known, and with a pass accuracy of 84.1% helping him to make an impressive 3 key passes per game, he will certainly be the one pulling the strings against Sunderland. In fact, nobody has bettered his 47 assists in the top 5 leagues of Europe since his arrival at Madrid (although Messi has equaled that number), and in his last 5 seasons he has provided 72 assists in total. Evidence of what he is, the best number 10 in the world, and even if he wasn’t what Arsenal were most desperate for, there is no doubting the impact that he will have.
Team News
Both teams have an extensive injury list: Bardsley, Cattermole, Brown, Gardner and Wickham are all currently injured, although Wes Brown may face a late fitness test, O’Shea is out through both injury and suspension.
It might be easier to list which of Arsenal’s players aren’t injured. Diaby, Vermaelen, Arteta, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Podolski, Sanogo and Rosicky are all definite absentees, and many of them will be for a long time. Walcott sustained an ankle injury against Ukraine and is likely to be 50/50 for this one.
Prediction
Sunderland are heavy underdogs for this, with the odds of a Black Cats win at 5.7. Arsenal, on the other hand, are 1.7 to win, and so it’s clear who the bookies fancy. I too fancy the Gunners, and so I’m going for a heavy Arsenal win.
Arsenal: 4 – 1
Odds Via Pinnacle Sports
Given that Sunderland are home and could be very motivated for this, the draw doesn’t seem too unlikely (despite my prediction) and with the odds for that at 3.9, it’s certainly worth a flutter.
