Jonny Grossmark

My first taste of football in a stadium was Gillingham V Aston Villa 1971 and I still have the programme which cost 5p. I have been lucky to have seen a number of Cup Finals but missed the Sunderland goal in 1973 as I was in the toliet. I have recently been watching Margate and also watch around 50 other matches a month on my computer .

How Well Does Your Team

How Well Does Your Team "Fightback" When Conceding 1st? I Stats Analysis

The phrase "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics" is certainly appropriate when discussing football data at a time when data is now readily available to the public should they be inclined to look at it. Manchester City have tried to raise the bar by offering data in the hope that some bright blogger/analyst will be able to add to the debate about improving performance via analysis of the data. In this article I want to …
An Analysis of late goals in the Premier League

An Analysis of late goals in the Premier League

In this article I am looking at the late goals in the EPL as historically more goals are scored 76-FT then any other time range. Currently there have been 124 goals scored 76-FT making up 20.8% of total goals and 2011 this was 22.3% and 2010 it was 23.2% and 2009 it was 23.6% and 2008 it was 25.1% so we should see a few more late goals in 2013 in the EPL to get close  to an average of …
Newcastle 1 Everton 2

Newcastle 1 Everton 2 "fightback" analysis

I would like to take you through a tour of data for the Newcastle v Everton game to see if Football is not random and your betting decisions are. We need to have a look at a football predictive model to guide us through goal expectation because when a bookmaker prices over and under 2.5 goals as an example they need to work this out. In order to do this they use a predictive model and luckily I have also …
A review of final third passing data | Stats Analysis

A review of final third passing data | Stats Analysis

I wrote a few weeks ago about the correlation between goals and final third passing and I think it would be a good time to review the current data as we come to the end of the year. If you look at the table at the bottom of the page you will see that Man City have attempted the most final-third passes 3759(FTP) so far this season, have completed the most final-third passes (FTP C) and have the highest % …
How important is the time of the first goal? | Stats Analysis

How important is the time of the first goal? | Stats Analysis

I thought it would be interesting to review the games which took place on 29th and 30th of December, focussing on the time of the first goal. In six of these games the first goal was scored by the away side within the first 20 minutes; of the other four games, three of them saw a home goal within the first twenty. The odd one out was Sunderland v Spurs which ended 1-2, with the first goal scored By O'Shea …
Backing both teams to score during QPR v Liverpool | Betting Stats

Backing both teams to score during QPR v Liverpool | Betting Stats

The bet BTTS, which stands for 'both teams to score' is very popular at the moment with the betting public. However, the chances of winning such a bet are smaller than you might think. The average number of goals per game this season is 2.86. In effect, this means one goal roughly every 32 minutes. Waiting 32 minutes for a bus to arrive would probably quickly become rather boring and frustrating. The media and some tipping websites have tried to play …
Liverpool's failings and Stoke's approach | Match Analysis

Liverpool's failings and Stoke's approach | Match Analysis

Stoke are aware of the value of teams not getting into their final third. In general there is a correlation between final third passing and goals and when a team attacks the Stoke danger zone the Potters make sure that they get behind the ball and allow the other team ball retention. If a team like Liverpool is too slow to recycle possession then this makes it easy for Stoke to prevent shots from becoming shots on target. Taken from the …
Manchester United 4 Newcastle 3 | Match Review using shot strength stats

Manchester United 4 Newcastle 3 | Match Review using shot strength stats

There will be hundreds of reviews of the Manchester United v Newcastle game discussing formations and showing how exciting the game. I would like, then, to show the raw data, mapping the game, to show that it is possible to predict the expectation of goals during a game by looking at shots as time decays. Background data before the game started Manchester United won 7 and lost 3 when conceding first, so we know they have strength of character to not lose …
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