Newcastle 1 Everton 2

Newcastle 1 Everton 2 "fightback" analysis

I would like to take you through a tour of data for the Newcastle v Everton game to see if Football is not random and your betting decisions are.

We need to have a look at a football predictive model to guide us through goal expectation because when a bookmaker prices over and under 2.5 goals as an example they need to work this out.

In order to do this they use a predictive model and luckily I have also built one which I can share with you with regard to Newcastle V Everton although please forgive me for not going through the details of the model.

Newcastle 0.28*4.60 which means my model has Newcastle at 4.60 shots on target and a goal to shot on target of 0.28 which gives a total of 1.288 goals

Everton 0.27*5.20 which gives a total of 1.404 goals so if you are unfortunate enough to listen to my ramblings on twitter then I advised this information before the game.

This in effect has the FT score at 1-1, but the caveat is that I also advised that Newcastle are in decline and that if they conceded first then I did not expect to see “fightback” spirit.

The first thing to look at now the game has ended 1-2 is what were the OPTA shot on target data for Newcastle and Everton and do they come anywhere close to my prediction?

Newcastle 5 and Everton 6 v my prediction of 4.60 v 5.20 so we know shot on target data is not random. I write for a Free newsletter and the shot on target data I offer as a prediction is accurate week on week if both teams perform to their average level.

Now if you are switching off and not believing that shot on target data then consider this series of Numbers 7 5 7 7 6 7 7 5 7 7  which is Man United shots on target at home. The strength of the away side becomes irrelevant to the number of shots on  target but you may find the accuracy (shot strength) is a key factor.

This is why it is so important to key the  strength of a shot to give a map of the game.

In terms of a predictive model I now have a thought that the game may end 1-1 but as I say this is only predictive and it is in-running that you can have a clear edge in expectation of a goal.

The key is does a goal, which is not a common event, accelerate or impede further goals or do neither and you need to consider this as each goal is scored as expectation of a goal is also dependent on the current score.

If we look at the shot strength in the first half we see that three things are clear;

  1. Both teams have scored and any BTTS bets (both teams to score bets) have won. Everton have now gone 16 games in a row with both teams scoring and their next game is against Swansea who failed to score against Everton at Home this season.
  2. Clearly Everton have been the better side in the first half and the early Newcastle goal was what I call an unexpected event which happen in life.

My argument is that the Newcastle goal triggered the Everton “fightback” goal as there was expectation of Everton scoring before the game anyway and you can see the build up of pressure via the four chances that I keyed.

At HT BET365 advised on the TV that the Price of Newcastle was 7/2(4.5). This is what I refer to as “bet stimulation” and I have written about many times.

They advised Newcastle on the basis that this was the least likely outcome of the three and I will try and explain why that is the case.

  1. Just three teams have won FT this season when HT 1-1 in the EPL and although this is not a historical trend this is certainly a trend to follow and till it reverts to the mean. Before the games tonight it was 4/21 Home wins as WBA have won twice when HT 1-1 at Home and this is just 19% so a trend was against Newcastle winning at HT.
  2. Everton have drawn all 10 of their last 1-1 HT games dating back to 2009-2010 and this is not a historical trend that BET365 were going to shout about. The results read HT 1-1 for Everton and five 1-1’s at FT, four 2-2’s and one 4-4. Again this is a trend that did not favour a Newcastle win.
  3. Everton have just lost once when conceding first this season and is explained by their “fightback” spirit which I have also written about in detail.
  4. 1-1 HT this season and before the game – 9 games out of 21 ended FT 1-1 which is 42% which ties into the idea that the second goal in a 1-1 HT game in the EPL can certainly impede further goals.

The average second half goals to the home team this season when HT 1-1 was before today was just 0.4(I have removed the Arsenal 7-3 as an outlier) and the away second half goals were slightly more at 0.47.

We can clearly see apart from Arsenal v Newcastle that the 1-1 HT score in the EPL does in fact impede further goals but when a team do score in the second half then this accelerates expectation of a “fightback” Before today 61.9% of 1-1 HT games ended a Draw FT and there is nothing random about that.

This is where everything is going to become counter intuitive as I put forward the reason why the above Everton trend has resulted.

Expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score and as I have written in many articles as mentioned earlier in this article, a goal can impede or accelerate further goals.

When Everton scored a second which was not an unexpected this is where I personally had expectation of a Newcastle second. Had Newcastle scored in the second half to go 2-1 I would have had expectation of a Everton second.

In effect I am telling you that I am wrong because Newcastle did not “fightback” but clear evidence on my excel sheet where I key the shot strength onto that 83-85 what a period when they did nearly score.

I am hoping that you will be able to define the difference between a trend and a historical trend after reading this and try to read a game in running in terms of goal expectation.

I appreciate that some of you will argue sample size but expectation of a goal has nothing to do with sample size and I have been actively predicting expectation of a goal(S) for two years now although I concede that Newcastle did not score a second goal.

Any in running model must be robust and take into consideration all the variables that I have discussed on EPL Index over the last few months.

I am confident that I am the only one at this stage to write about goal expectation and show the shot strength of games and this certainly helps to build a picture and is used by bookmakers as a tool as well.

In conclusion Newcastle are a club in crisis and Everton and Man United remain the two teams who can concede and not let their mindset be threatened in terms of thoughts of losing. I have seen in many games where a team score  first and what I call a random (unexplained) goal and lose.

Please remember that Football is not as random as you think and I am certain that I am on the right track regarding goal expectation as I have recently had a number of people who are employed by football trading companies question the validity of my work as this is the area that their in-running model is built around.

Let us briefly look at the games that ended 1-2 FT and 1-1 HT in the EPL this season to see if this game fits the profile.

Although I can only offer a sample of three 1-2 FT this season we see that the home goal shot on target average was 4.33 and the away shot on target average was 5 which is almost in line with the 5 v 6 that resulted so in that sense the 1-2 FT was not an unexpected scoreline.