Evaluating Premier League Transfer Rumours: Evan Ferguson to Arsenal

Ground Rules for Rumour Assessment

Welcome back to Rating the Rumour, which does exactly what it says on the tin. We’ll be taking the biggest transfer rumours related to Premier League teams and rating the likelihood of the moves coming to fruition.

The final rating will be decided based on the potential fit of the player into the rumoured buying club, the need for that club to sign a player for the position played, whether the player is of the level required by the club, whether the club could afford the rumoured price and whether or not the player is even likely to be available for transfer.

We will not factor in the reliability of the rumour, as it would likely cause mass amounts of crying from outlets, journalists and “journalists” who would have to be denounced as spoofers.

With the ground rules laid out, let’s look at Evan Ferguson to Arsenal which has been reported by Football Insider.

Evan Ferguson’s Rumoured Move to Arsenal

Arsenal have used four different players in the number 9 position this season. Gabriel Jesus is the preferred choice, but Eddie Nketiah, Kai Havertz and Leandro Trossard have all played multiple games.

Jesus, Havertz and Trossard all play the role of “false 9” types, dropping into midfield and linking play, whereas Nketiah is more of a penalty box, off-the-last-shoulder type.

Evan Ferguson is a completely different type of number 9 and while there’s no doubt that Mikel Arteta could move pieces around to alter his team to play with a traditional number 9 like the Irishman – who shows signs of a well-rounded game, the immediate fit is a little clunky.

Fit Rating – 1/2

Arsenal’s Need for a Striker

Arsenal have four options for this position, and that’s after selling the immensely talented Folarin Balogun last summer. There have been issues in front of goal for Arsenal though, and in multiple games that has led to dropped points.

Things have picked up recently though and the goals have started to flow for the Gunners. The issue for Mikel Arteta will be figuring out if a number 9 who is the primary goalscorer will take away from the goals being scored by Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli, because if so Arsenal might end up spending a lot of money without actually increasing the goals scored by the team.

Need Rating – 1/2

Ferguson’s Level and Experience

Ferguson is one of the best young strikers in the world. But the key word is young. He’s only 19 and he’s only played 58 games for Brighton, and a total of 62 when including his time at Bohemians in Ireland.

He remains inconsistent, like all young players, and that could be problematic for a team like Arsenal who are chasing the biggest honours. They aren’t in a position to spend an enormous amount of money on a player who isn’t a ready-made starter.

Ferguson has shown continued development, and proven himself good enough to play in the Premier League, but not yet shown that he’s ready for a team with title aspirations.

Level Rating – 1/2

Financial Viability of the Transfer

It’s Brighton we’re talking about, so there is no chance of any sort of discounted fee being involved. They know what they have, they know what he’s worth and they will look to extract every penny possible.

If Rasmus Hojlund was worthy of a £75mil fee last summer, then Brighton will want more given Ferguson is more proven than Hojlund was at the time.

Can Arsenal afford a fee of between £85mil and £100mil? It seems unlikely as they are very close to the Profit and Sustainability wall. Perhaps they have some sales to make but this appears out of their price range for the coming summer.

Affordability Rating – 0/2

Ferguson’s Availability

Simply put, no. Brighton don’t want to sell and Brighton don’t need to sell. Ferguson is under a long-term contract and is very content at the club. He’s a smart player who makes career-orientated decisions and he won’t look to force a move before the time is right.

It would be no surprise if Evan Ferguson is still at Brighton in two years.

Availability Rating – 0/2

Conclusion: Evan Ferguson to Arsenal Rumour Rating

This is a 3/10 rumour. It would be a significant surprise to see any sort of movement towards a deal like this in the upcoming summer.