Analysing the 2023/24 Premier League Season: A Tactical and Statistical Breakdown
The 2023/24 Premier League season has been a rollercoaster, combining moments of thrilling matches with periods of underwhelming football quality. Dave Hendrick’s insights on the EPL Index’s ‘Two Footed Podcast’ offer a compelling critique of the season, touching on the dichotomy between high-scoring games and overall poor quality of play. In this blog, I will delve deeper into Hendrick’s observations, reflecting on the tactical shifts and defensive strategies that defined this season.
High Scoring, Yet Quality Declines
Dave Hendrick pointed out, “I think this Premier League season has been reasonably poor and the quality of football has been largely terrible.” Despite a record number of 1,246 goals scored this season, an average of 3.28 goals per game, the excitement these figures suggest is somewhat misleading. The surge in goals has not necessarily equated to a higher standard of football. Instead, it hints at possible defensive frailties and tactical imbalances within teams. The Premier League has often been celebrated for its intense competitiveness and tactical nous, but this season suggests a potential deviation from those principles.
Consistency in Flux: The Curious Case of the Top Teams
The inconsistency among traditionally strong teams has been notable. Hendrick highlighted, “You’ve only got three teams in the league that lost less than ten games, which points to the fact that there’s less draws than there used to be.” This shift indicates a changing approach where teams are possibly playing for wins in scenarios they might have previously settled for draws, influencing the dynamics at both ends of the league table.
Liverpool’s season is particularly emblematic of this trend. As Hendrick notes, “Liverpool this year, if some of those draws become wins then they’d be in a different situation.” This remark sheds light on a broader tactical issue faced by many Premier League clubs: converting draws into wins is often the difference between a good season and a great one. Liverpool’s historical penchant for drawing games that could have been wins has been a subtle yet significant factor that has allowed rivals, particularly Manchester City, to edge them out in the title races of previous years.
Defensive Discrepancies and the Aston Villa Surprise
One of the more surprising elements of the season was Aston Villa’s finish in the top four, despite conceding 61 goals. To put this into perspective, “last season Newcastle finished fourth and conceded 33. The season before that Tottenham finished fourth with 40 goals conceded.” This statistic is quite startling and points to an anomaly in what it takes to secure a top-four finish. Traditionally, a strong defensive record has been nearly as important as scoring goals, but Aston Villa’s journey this season suggests a shift towards a more attack-oriented strategy, possibly at the expense of defensive solidity.
Tactical Evolution or a Temporary Blip?
The 2023/24 season raises questions about whether we are witnessing a temporary blip in the Premier League’s quality and tactical depth, or if this is the beginning of a new trend where high-scoring games become the norm at the cost of traditional defensive strength. Teams might be adjusting their strategies in response to broader trends in European football, which has seen a general increase in goal averages across major leagues.
However, the tactical purity and the grit traditionally associated with the Premier League are aspects that many fans and pundits alike cherish. The balancing act between evolving to match global football trends and maintaining the unique characteristics of English football will be crucial for the league’s identity moving forward.
In conclusion, the 2023/24 Premier League season has been a mixed bag, offering as much for analysts to ponder as for fans to celebrate. The insights provided by Dave Hendrick give us a nuanced understanding of the tactical shifts and their implications on the league standings. As we look towards the future, it will be interesting to see how teams adapt and whether this season will be remembered as a pivotal moment for the league.
