When Burnley, Sheffield United, and Luton Town were relegated from the Premier League at the end of the 2023/24 season, it marked only the second time in the competition’s history that all three promoted sides had gone straight back down. It was, by all accounts, a historical anomaly—the last time this happened was 26 years ago at the end of the 1997/98 season.
Yet, for the second season in a row, the prospect of all three promoted teams suffering the same fate is looking increasingly inevitable.
The Relegation Odds are Unequivocal
The latest Premier League odds for relegation reflect this impending reality, with Southampton priced at 1/500, Leicester at 1/33, and Ipswich at 1/10—figures that suggest survival is little more than a mathematical possibility.
The reality is that fans looking to make football bets on the Premier League for the remainder of the season are unlikely to find any value in the relegation market. With 12 games to go in the current campaign, this hasn’t always been the case with relegation typically going down to the last day of the Premier League season.
Notwithstanding the increasingly small chance that one of these clubs in the bottom three manages to pull off a great escape, the question has to be: Is it becoming impossible for promoted teams to stay up in the Premier League?
How Much is Enough?
From afar, it may seem impossible to bridge the gap between the top of the Championship and the bottom half of the Premier League. That concern becomes even more alarming when you consider that the three promoted clubs had a combined gross spend of £278 million in the transfer market this season. For context, only 12 other clubs in world football spent more than Ipswich did last summer.
At this point, it’s fair to ask: How much is enough in the modern era? While a valid question, there’s also an argument to be made about how newly promoted clubs build their squads.
A Look Behind the Numbers
Ipswich adopted a “best in class” approach by bringing in Championship standouts like Sammie Szmodics, the division’s top scorer in 2024. The result? After 26 games, the Suffolk side sits five points adrift of 17th, having scored the second-fewest goals in the league.
Leicester, meanwhile, lost manager Enzo Maresca to Chelsea in the summer and then sold their best player Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to the Blues—stripping away key components of their title-winning side. The Foxes’ attempt to compensate by signing experienced Premier League journeymen, such as Jordan Ayew, has failed to fill the void.
6 – Tonight was Leicester’s sixth consecutive home defeat without scoring in the Premier League – the longest ever run of home losses without a goal by any side within a single season in English top-flight history. Bleak. pic.twitter.com/viuURQnYxJ
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) February 21, 2025
Southampton’s bid for survival has been equally baffling. The club persisted with manager Russell Martin who remained defiant about a footballing philosophy that was being picked apart by Premier League opposition. By the time the Saints finally made a managerial change in December, the damage had already been done with Southampton nine points from safety.
The south coast club’s recruitment strategy was no less perplexing as Southampton turned to players like Ben Brereton Diaz from Villarreal to provide the goals needed for survival.
A perfect fit 🇨🇱⚔️ pic.twitter.com/exEw3F3B6L
— Sheffield United (@SheffieldUnited) January 20, 2025
Diaz was loaned to Sheffield United in the Championship five months after his arrival—a clear indictment of their flawed transfer approach.
Misfiring On and Off the Pitch
There’s no denying that newly promoted clubs face a near-herculean task to avoid an immediate return to the second tier. But beyond the financial disparity, the evidence suggests that critical mistakes in the boardrooms of Ipswich, Leicester, and Southampton have dramatically reduced their chances of survival.
