Talk about underdogs in the Premier League, and certain seasons and achievements jump into people’s minds. Leicester’s incredible underdog story, and even Blackburn back in 95 for those who can remember the early days of the EPL.
The Premier League isn’t short on drama. Every season, fans witness shock results and underdogs rising up to stun giants. It’s part of what makes English football such a rollercoaster. And for bettors, there’s something fascinating about spotting a potential upset before it happens.
Underdogs don’t always lose. Sometimes they pull off wins that defy form or even logic. For those who know where to look, betting on these surprise results can be a smart way to find value in a market that’s often dominated by favourites.
Here are some tips and insights for backing Premier League underdogs without getting swept up in long shots.
Check the odds for the best value
If somebody is going to bet on an underdog, it makes sense to get the best odds possible. Different online sportsbooks have different markets and odds. It is not unheard of to find big discrepancies between the odds on a team to win from one sportsbook to the next. There are other markets out there, and different sportsbooks may also provide people with a different way to bet.
Bet builders are also very popular now. It could be a case of betting on an underdog to perform well, but also adding other aspects like players to score or the number of corners in the match. These can give even more variety in terms of the odds that are available.
Underdogs in the Premier League
The Premier League has plenty of strong teams. Names like Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool tend to attract most of the attention. But not every game goes their way. Mid-table sides and even relegation candidates can upset the balance on their day. It’s happened before, and it’ll happen again. When Leicester won the league, they were deemed to be relegation candidates by many and were 5,000-1 outsiders.
Underdog bets offer bigger odds and can pay off well. That doesn’t mean going all in every time a longshot pops up. But with some research and understanding of the game, betting on these teams can be more than just wishful thinking or taking a punt.
Research the form
Just because a team is ranked lower doesn’t mean it’s out of form. Smaller clubs often go through solid runs where they pick up points, even against tough opposition. Momentum matters.
Checking recent performances can help spot a team on the rise. Maybe they drew against a top-six side. Maybe they’ve tightened up defensively or brought in a new striker who’s finally scoring. These details can make a big difference.
Also, some clubs seem to step up when facing stronger opposition. These are the matchups where motivation spikes. We regularly see big teams having really tough spells, and they may lose multiple games in a row. In 2024/25, we saw Man City drop off significantly after winning four titles in a row. Nobody is infallible.
Look at the fixtures
Fixture congestion is no joke in the Premier League. Teams playing in Europe or domestic cups often rotate their squads, especially when facing weaker sides. That’s when underdogs can take advantage.
A top club coming off a tough midweek Champions League game might not be at full strength on Saturday. If the underdog is well-rested and playing at home, the playing field starts to even out to some extent.
Looking at the calendar can reveal hidden opportunities. Fatigue and travel can all influence how strong a favourite really is. In the European competitions now, teams may travel as far as the Arctic Circle for games – something Spurs have experienced as they need to head to Bodo/Glimt for a fixture in the latter stages of the Europa League.
Home advantage
Smaller stadiums. Tight pitches. Vocal fans. Playing away at a place like Turf Moor or Kenilworth Road can be uncomfortable for even the most polished teams.
While the overall impact of home advantage has decreased slightly over recent years, it still plays a role, and especially for underdogs. The comfort of home surroundings and the energy from the crowd can lift performance. And for the visiting side, things like travel and unfamiliar conditions can throw off rhythm.
Handicap and other markets
There are markets that some people use to bet on these kinds of matchups. Backing underdogs doesn’t always mean betting on them to win outright. Asian handicap and European handicap markets can offer smarter ways to get involved.
A +1.5 or +2 handicap means the team can lose by one or two goals, and the bet still wins or pushes. This can be useful when a tight game is expected, or when the favourite might win but not dominate.
Handicap markets help reduce risk while still backing the underdog in some form. It’s a good middle ground for cautious bettors.
Another route for underdog support involves lowering risk through bet types like “draw no bet” or “double chance.”
With draw no bet, if the match ends in a tie, the stake is refunded. Only a loss results in losing the bet. Double chance offers a payout if either the underdog wins or draws. Odds are lower, but the safety net makes these options appealing when the underdog seems ready to punch above its weight.
These markets offer a more conservative path, especially when a full-on upset win feels slightly out of reach but not impossible.
Conclusion
People like to take differing approaches when it comes to betting on the Premier League. You only have to look at a few historic league tables and results to see exactly how many upsets there are and how often teams either underperform or overperform. Shocks aren’t that uncommon and those who can call them may stand to get longer odds than those who constantly back the favourites.
