With just three remaining matchweeks for most sides in the English Premier League, the top-flight title race has boiled down to familiar territory in recent years – Arsenal vs Manchester City to be crowned kings of the nation.
Arsenal hold the top spot at time of writing, with 76 points earned from their 35 games so far (23 wins, seven draws and five losses with a +41 goal difference) and Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City side are bringing up behind them in second, boasting 70 points but whilst holding two games in hand over Mikel Arteta’s side. With five Man City games left on the calendar, Manchester City trail by just six points.
Both clubs have already landed qualification for next season’s Champions League, but the domestic bragging rights are yet to be decided. Arsenal, seeking a first Premier League title in over two decades, have led for the majority of the season but have shown cracks in their steely demeanour, dropping a few choice points over the late weeks on occasions that have allowed City to mount a trademark late surge at the top seat. A potentially decisive head-to-head at the Etihad went this direction, with Manchester City getting the winner thanks to Erling Haaland. The Gunners have restored their six-point lead with wins over Newcastle and Fulham, but the day is far from won just yet.
With some nervous few days ahead as the season closes, here is our breakdown, football prediction and the latest odds for the Premier League title race in 2025/26.
Arsenal: Season Review and Recent Form
Mikel Arteta and his side – always the bridesmaids, never the brides. Well, hopefully for them, they will be able to change that this season.
For long periods of this campaign, they have been the most consistent team in the league. The arrival of Viktor Gyokeres has provided the goalscoring focal point that a leaderless attack required whilst netting 21 goals in all competitions. He has spearheaded a potent front line with the likes of Bukayo Saka, Leandro Trossard and Gabriel Martinelli, whilst other arrivals like Eberechi Eze and Martin Zubimendi have added depth and quality to a team desperate for silverware.
Arsenal could make the case to being one of the best defensive teams in the world. William Saliba and Gabriel may be one of the best center-back pairings in the history of the league, and the likes of David Raya and Jurrien Timber help complete a formidable backline that has conceded just 26 goals all term.
A brief wobble in form over mid-April, which included the Gunners missing out on the Carabao Cup trophy thanks to Man City, has since been recovered from by Arsenal after wins over Newcastle United and Fulham, and they had been nigh-on unbeatable at home before then. They have manageable fixtures to come, too, with relegation-troubled West Ham being in the mix along with already-relegated Burnley and an out-of-sorts Crystal Palace who are lucky not to be in the drop zone conversation as well. Arsenal need nine points from these three games to get to 85 points, which should be enough to get them the league title.
Manchester City: Season Review and Recent Form
Guardiola’s footballing monopoly machine has been a tycoon of champion’s pedigree in the years gone by, closing gaps relentlessly at times where it has appeared that the Citizen’s may go trophyless. They’ve closed down bigger gaps and more insurmountable odds in the past, and have a massive two games in-hand over Arsenal – don’t write them out of this title fight for even a meagre moments.
Man City’s attack has been clinical, netting 66 goals from 33 games thanks to the ever-present Erling Haaland with the support of new star men Rayan Cherki and Antoine Semenyo, and of course the likes of Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva (with the latter enjoying his final campaign in Manchester). Their defence is strong as ever, but has leaked a few more goals this term than has been seen in prior Man City title successes with 29.
Their recent form has been excellent. They haven’t lost a domestic match since a surprise Manchester Derby defeat to Manchester United in mid-January, and their five remaining games are all winnable feats for the club too (Everton, at time of writing, followed by Brentford, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Aston Villa). A congested schedule may play it’s part against Man City following in on their two games in-hand with wins, which includes an FA Cup final against Chelsea, but a perfect haul of points would take them to 85 points – that’s level with Arsenal’s maximum total this term, keeping the pressure high for the Gunners.
Current Title Odds from a Leading UK Bookmaker
According to a leading UK bookmaker, as of early May 2026:
- Arsenal to win the Premier League: 4/6
- Manchester City to win the Premier League: 13/10
Expert Prediction: Who Will Win the 2025/26 Title?
This season is shaping up to have one of the tightest finales in years. Maximum points hauls for both sides would see them both finish level on points, meaning even the slightest slip-up for either team in the next few weeks could hand the title straight to their rivals. Arsenal hold the slim edge on goal difference, but those two games in-hand for Man City will likely see them close that down, as well as their sitting one goal behind Arsenal on goals scored. The H2H is even too – Man City won 2-1 back in April after Arsenal had won the reverse clash 2-0.
The tiebreakers all being so nail-bitingly close makes for a tense final few affairs this season. Man City have chops in these sorts of predicaments, having closed down bigger gaps in their past, and that will set the nerves through an Arsenal side that have so long been on the receiving end of jokes about their ability to bring the Premier League title home. However, this Gunners side is one that looks more steeled and more professional than the one that threw the title away a couple of years ago, and Mikel Arteta’s hunger to end a 22-year wait will be insatiable.
Our predictions: Arsenal win the 2025/26 Premier League title – it’ll likely be on the final day or maybe via goal difference, but we see the Gunners re-writing the many joke books written at their expense and survive the Citizen assault. They will be pushed and ebbed all the way to the wire by Manchester City, of course, but the current course of momentum might mean that, after all, it was their defiant rivals Manchester United who eventually cost them the title with their most recent Premier League loss.
These next few weeks could be breathless for either side. Even the slightest bit of hesitation in any of the eight cumulative games these two sides have got to play could decide the fate of England’s top crown. Whatever happens and wherever it goes, this season has been a rollercoaster to enjoy up and down the table.
