As the Premier League enters the final stages of the season I have managed to crunch the numbers for the Manager Impact Index and take a look at how the managers are performing.
If you’ve never read this series before I started this back in August so for more information read the first ever Manager Impact Index blog here: Introduction to the Manager Impact Index.
I’ve taken the liberty of having a good look at the impacts of the new managers this season and the correlation between Manager Impacts and Premier League points.
My first port of call is to assess any improvements over the last 16 weeks, using Impact Points Per Game (only applies to managers who had games at Week 16 and Week 32:
The chart shows that the most improved manager is Sam Allardyce who has increased his average impact points from 6.08 to 9.78 with Brendan Rodgers not far behind with an increase of 2.78 impact points per game. The overall figures are:
Arsene Wenger is slipping fast and Mark Hughes is nothing if not consistent with no change in the last 16 weeks.
Despite Allardyces increase, he is still well below the average of 12.93, and the average itself has increased from 12.68 in Week 16.
The average Impact points per game chart overall is below:
The New Boys
I thought it might be interesting to isolate the new managers and see who is having the biggest impact on their team.
Despite the grief that they’re getting in the press and on Twitter, Tim Sherwood and Pepe Mel are having significantly more impact on their teams than the others. I’m convinced that Pepe Mel has the potential to be a better manager than his current situation suggests, whether a bigger club than West Brom agrees remains to be seen.
The key thing for clubs and fans when replacing their manager is to see an improvement in their fortunes. The next chart looks at the difference in Impact Points Per Game for each of the new managers this season compared with their predecessor.
So, Tony Pulis is the only replacement manager this season that has delivered an improved Impact Points Per Game v their predecessor. Every other new manager has had a worse impact than the manager they took over from.
Impacts Per Game v EPL PPG
The chart below shows Impacts v EPL Points for the managers who have been with their teams since the start of the season.
The above may show which managers are outperforming their players and vice versa. For example, comparing the fact that Pochettino has a higher IPG than Moyes, yet Moyes has more PPG suggests that Moyes players are performing better than he is as a manager. The same may apply for Mourinho and Rodgers, with Mourinho having more impact on his Chelsea team but his players not delivering the Premier League points that his impacts deserve.
What is an Impact worth in points terms?
On average, every impact that the manager has on their team is worth 0.514 Premier League Points (roughly 1/2 a point per impact). Thus, Pellegrini, who is having an average 4.33 impacts per game is gaining 2.23 points per game.
Solskjaer needs to increase his impacts per game drastically to gain enough points to retain Cardiffs Premier League Place. To get to what I believe as being a safe position of 36 points he needs 10 more points. If each point was worth the average of 1/2 an impact he would need 20 impacts over 6 games, or 3.33 per game, which is double his current performance.
Week 32 Tables
Changes at the top with Rodgers now moving ahead of Mourinho and Wenger into 2nd.
Pellegrini has romped into a clear lead, with 2 games in hand and looks to be favourite to finish top.
Steve Bruce still outperforms Pardew and Allardyce but has been taken over by Mark Hughes in recent weeks.
Total figures, as always, below: