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EPL Prediction Model: Wk 37 | Liverpool, Chelsea to win, City to lose – Just

Liverpool slipped in the title race last weekend and like most of the statistical models out there, the EPL Model didn’t see it coming. Tactics are an area of the game that is very hard to model – we have data on how players usually behave, but when they’re deployed in a different role, or asked to attack less than usual, it’s not something that our model will see coming.

This week is the last but one of 2013/14 and I’ll have a preview next week of new developments that are coming for next season. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though. Here are the percentages for this week:


And the detailed passing and shooting stats:

3-5 - detailed

Liverpool and Chelsea are expected to win quite comfortably, although the model has been struggling with Palace’s transformation under Pulis. Everton v Manchester City is unbelievably tight!

Finally, here are the model’s calls:

West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur – Away win
Aston Villa v Hull City – Away win
Manchester United v Sunderland – Draw
Newcastle United v Cardiff City – Home win
Stoke City v Fulham – Draw
Swansea City v Southampton – Home win
Everton v Manchester City – Only 1% in it. Home win
Arsenal v West Bromwich Albion – Home win
Chelsea v Norwich City – Home win
Crystal Palace v Liverpool – Away win

Statistical analyst and econometrician, working for a large marketing agency. Football stats are much more interesting.
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