The recent years for Manchester City have been eventful, to say the least. The club has gone from a solid mid-table club to the top of the EPL. What has happened statistically since this rise? Fortunately, EPL Index provides data back to the 2008/2009 season. I was able to track statistics to see how City has improved over the past 4 seasons. The data shows exactly how impressive this improvement really is. I should point out that the data for the current 2011/2012 season is projected. Basically, I multiplied the data to give the projected numbers if City kept up the current pace it is on. Yes, this is not a perfect way to do it, but it at least allows us to compare this current season to the last 3 before it.
The first graph below is simply tracking points, goals for, goals against, goal differential, and clean sheets over the past 4 seasons for Manchester City. There is a steady improvement in points over the first 3 seasons, then a jump this year. Interestingly enough, Manchester City has drastically improved its projected goal differential this season by scoring goals- there goals against total has actually steadily decreased over the past 4 seasons. Also an interesting note: City’s clean sheet total has stayed fairly constant. The graph reinforces the belief that City’s dominance has come from a high powered offense.
The first graph is pretty obvious. Most people could guess the trends it displays. The graph below illustrates City’s trends in shots, shots on target, crosses and interceptions over the past 4 years. Predictably, shots and shots on target have drastically jumped this past year. A surprising piece is that crosses and interceptions have actually steadily decreased. There are a couple reasons why I think this has happened. Crosses have declined because City has not relied on crosses, especially this season. Most of the goals have come through build-ups through the midfield, hence the low number of crosses. The interceptions statistic has declined because better clubs actually have lower interception numbers. This may sound strange, but it really does make sense. Clubs that are weaker are under much more pressure and thus are able to make more interceptions. In short, interceptions are actually negatively correlated with the strength of the team.
The third graph below shows the passing and crossing percentages over the past 4 seasons. This graph is pretty much exactly what we would expect: passing and crossing percentage has seen a steady increase. As we saw above, Manchester City has crossed less this season. The higher cross percentage could be from the fact that when Manchester City does cross the ball, it is in a higher percentage situation. I am actually surprised the pass percentage did not increase by a larger amount this season. This could be because an increase of only 3 percentage points is actually very significant for passing percentages aggregated over entire seasons.
The final graph displays City’s passes, attacking half passes, and touches over the past four seasons. Passes and attacking half passes have predictably increased over the past 4 years, with a significant spike this past season. City has earned a reputation as a passing club, so it is no surprise that passes and attacking half passes have increased this year. Touches, on the other hand, have stayed fairly constant over the years. This is interesting to me. I assumed touches would drastically increase this season, but that is not the case. I don’t really have an explanation for why this is the case.
For the most part, these graphs display what we would expect: A steady increase from the 2008/2009 season to the 2010/2011 season, followed by a drastic jump this season. An interesting question arises from these graphs: Is the rise in numbers simply correlation or is causation? In other words, did City become a dominant club and then see a rise in statistics (correlation) or did they sign players who had better numbers which led to their rise? This is a complicated question that can’t be answered here. I am sure that most big clubs are looking to answer this question. The correlation/causation question aside, Manchester City has quickly grown to be a dominant club no matter which way you look at it.
