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Premier League Predictions: Week Six

Using a new online service called Betegy – a website that analyses thousands of individual data points for all Premier League matches, before running them through a mathematical model – EPL Index will use information from this site for this weekend’s series of matches.

Match Day 6 Predictions

Chelsea vs Arsenal:

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The headline act, and first fixture of this round of games, is a clash at Stamford Bridge. Wenger has never beaten Mourinho in a competitive fixture, but because of the Blues’ defensive issues this season (conceding 2.4 goals per game), and the Community Shield victory, Arsenal are now predicted to have the same chance as Chelsea of winning this match. However, a draw is the most likely result (36%).

Aston Villa vs West Brom:

Tony Pulis’ side travel, not very far, to play Sherwood’s Villa side in a Midlands derby. With both teams only recording one victory in their last five, Betegy predicts the home team as favourites (39%), but again this one is close to call, and it is easy to see why: derbies are notoriously difficult to predict, their recent head to head matches include one victory a piece, and three draws.

Stoke City vs Leicester City:

Leicester – the form side of the season, relative to expectations – and Mark Hughes’ Stoke side, who are really struggling near the foot of the table after a summer of large squad investment clash on Saturday. So what does the model predict? A home win (40%), with the draw (34%)  and the Foxes (26%) lagging behind. Maybe worth a punt on the away side of the odds also reflect this?

Swansea vs Everton:

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The home side nearly beat Chelsea, and then did against Man United, whereas Everton come off the back off a home win against Mourinho’s team. Should be full of confidence, they’re in similar position in the league, same amount of points, so the obvious choice is a draw.

AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland:

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(Click on the image for a detailed analysis)

Newcastle United vs Watford:

Watford, like Leicester, have surprised many so far this season, especially after beating Swansea last time out. Newcastle, under new manager Steve McLaren, are languishing at the bottom of the table. The model, however, suggests once again that the home team are favourites (37%), and perhaps, if the bookies disagree, offer good value? Nevertheless, this is another tough one to call in terms of the percentage analysis.

Man City vs West Ham:

The most one-sided contest of the weekend? Man City (67%), having not conceded a goal, are huge favourites; and the model suggests West Ham will win less than one in ten. Bilic will just remind his side how they beat Arsenal and Liverpool (for the first time in fifty plus years).

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace:

Home advantage again likely to be key here (39%), but in terms of form, the league table and the most recent contest between the two teams (Palace won 2-1), then this represents good value for Pardew’s Palace. Interestingly, Spurs have exact the same goals conceded scored figures this season (0.8), and so do the Eagles (1.2). Another draw on the cards?

Southampton vs Man United:

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Positions in the league: So’ton (11th) vs Man Utd (3rd). The both teams to score market is also very close, slightly edging towards yes. The Saints also won the most recent match 1-0 at Old Trafford in January. If you can get a good price on Man United, that is probably the best bet.

Liverpool vs Norwich:

Rodgers’ team have a fantastic record against Norwich, especially at home, but the loss of Suarez and Sterling (plus injuries) and four games without a victory offer the Canaries as good a chance as any to claim a positive result at Anfield.

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  1. Great mathematical model that is. It predicts West Ham will only win 1 in 10. Already being on 3 , leaves 2 more wins out of the next 33 games to blow the model. West Ham may not win at City, but my money is on the mathematical model being less than reliable.


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