WBA WIN! | Opta Stats Report & Preview

There’s been scant representation for WBA on this site of late and part of that problem has been finding positives to take away from the recent fixtures. A 1-1 draw with Queens Park Rangers followed by a 1-2 loss at the Hawthorns, and to Wigan no less, haven’t left much on the stat sheet to glory in.  However, the weekend’s 2-1 win over Blackburn and Wednesday’s trip to St. James should provide West Bromwich with at least four vital points before the Boxing Day visit from table-toppers Manchester City.

In Saturday’s victory over Rovers there was only one member of Steve Kean’s side who managed more than 40 passes, Steve Nzonzi who completed 47/62 for 76% accuracy.  The remainder of the squad passes completed looked like this 217/293 – 74% completed. Unsurprisingly Blackburn held just 44.3% of the ball.  With 55.7% of the ball Roy Hodgson’s side managed to take 70 more touches than their hosts and lost the ball 4 fewer times (9 to 13).  Despite the significant advantage in ball possession each side created 13 chances, with each creating 11 from open play and 2 from set pieces and assisting on 1 goal.  This meant that the focus of the defense fell squarely on the shoulders of Ben Foster as he posted 5 saves in victory.

Foster’s season long loan from Birmingham City has been a success despite the 24 goals allowed through 16 League fixtures. Against Blackburn he was solid in goal, with 5 saves and just 1 goal allowed but did show a weakness for giving away possession. Foster was accurate on just 1 of 4 goal kicks and 13/24 Open Play Passes (54% OPP).

The above stats are taken right from our Stats Center [Subscribe Now to get access to Opta Stats] and it is clear that West Brom would be benefited by Foster rediscovering his shot stopping form of a year ago.  Despite the the saves per game dropping from 4.7/game to 3/game Foster’s goals allowed is a negligible .05/game higher.  When he has been able to post higher saves totals, like this week, the Baggies benefit with a win against Wolves and draws with Sunderland and Fulham due in large part to the play of the ‘keeper.

Ultimately West Brom won this match by capitalizing on their chances better than their opponents.  While Ben Foster put in an excellent shift denying chances, Peter Odemwingie embarked on 2 of the clubs 6 successful dribbles while taking 7 shots (just 2 on target) and netting the winner on 89′.

His minutes have been heavily impacted by injury this season and for WBA to succeed they will need their best players healthy and in Hodgson’s starting XI.  Of course, health with Peter has been debated in pubs and the press with some of the comments from the manager not helping the issue.  However, if he’s able to stay on the field there is nothing in the numbers that indicates he’s incapable of recreating last years numbers.  While both his shooting accuracy and Chance Conversion are slightly lower than a year ago both are from small enough samples that a single good match (say 4 of 6 shots on target with 2 goals) would skew them back over last seasons return.  The fact remains that Shane Long and Odemwingie have yet to forge a lethal partnership, one that would stake a claim to being one of the most prolific strike partnerships in the League.

This partnership is key to WBA’s survival and the fixture at St. James on Wednesday highlights this as the match will likely break against two smaller battles. Odemwingie/Long v. Tim Krul and Ba/Best v. Ben Foster will provide the backdrop to this important mid-season clash. Though Demba Ba has been the most prolific scorer of the group, his 11 goals have come on 38 shots, with 23 of those being on target.  His strike partner has played only 773′, 70′ in the 0-0 draw with Swansea in the last match, but has 3 goals on 6 shots on target. Best also provides a creative option on the field creating 16 chances this season, a rate of 1 chance every 48′.  Ba, despite his 11 goals, is not as creative a player with only 7 chances created and 1 assist. Ba is creating a chance only once every 156′.

Across the ball  for WBA, Long and Odemwingie are facing a ‘keeper in Tim Krul who has allowed just 1.19 goals per game. Krul has 42 saves and 19 goals allowed.  Long has scored 5 Premier League goals this season while Odemwingie added 3.  However, Shane’s 1 goal/234′ and Peter’s 1 goal/262′ must improve.  One place they will have a chance to improve will be in getting the ball to Long’s feet.  While Odemwinge has played some 400’ fewer he has taken 19 shots to Long’s 20.  However, the newcomer has better shooting accuracy (55% to 47%) and Chance Conversion (25% to 16%).  While this offense clearly ran through Odemwingie last season, the numbers indicate it must run through Long this season.

The duo do have one thing in common with their Geordie counter-parts. Odemwingie is a more prolific at creating chances while his teammate possess the more lethal finishing touch. Peter has created 12 chances already this season – one every 66′.  Long has just 10 – one every 117′.  If they are able to forge a link Odemwingie’s chance creation and Long’s proficient strike rate could lift the Baggies into a comfortable position in the top half of the table. That rise up the table should start on Wednesday.