There are hundreds of little tips to help casual bettors become better NFL handicappers. However, there are only a few fundamental tips that can turn a losing handicapper into a winning handicapper and we’re going to discuss those.
Have Manageable Expectations
If you start betting with the expectation that you’ll be retired within a month – think again. That’s extremely unlikely to happen. In fact – you’d have just as good of a chance winning the American lottery, which as you know isn’t likely.
Betting on the NFL is a long grind and you need patience to become a winning NFL handicapper. You have to be happy with small profits. Those that chase the big profits or often the ones that go broke the quickest when gambling. Keep this in mind – even professional NFL handicappers are pleased to hit 60% of their bets over a full season.
You only need to win 52.38% of your wagers to break-even when betting into standard $.10 (-110) lines. If you can hit 53% or more of your bets, you’re going to make money as long as you employ proper bankroll management. You can also add a few percentage points to your profits over the course of a season by shopping for the best lines.
A professional NFL handicapper isn’t going to consistently win 60% or 70% of their bets and anyone telling you that they’re hitting at this rate are lying, as they’d be millionaires. The biggest differences between casual bettors and pro handicappers are that the pros shop for the best lines and manage their bankrolls more diligently.
Avoid Any Team/Player Biases
Everyone has a favorite team they love to cheer on and having money on your team makes it more entertaining, but is that a smart investment? Clearly not, especially if you’re just betting your team blindly every week. Avoid all team and player biases when making predictions – focus on where you can find edges and exploit those instead.
Following a team or certain players can be profitable if you don’t have any bias, though. Let’s say you follow Atlanta and you know they have one of the worst passing defenses. You can look more closely at games the Falcons will play against elite QBs and see if there are any edges in the betting markets.
Master the Basics
There are hundreds of advanced statistics and metrics used by the best football minds to gain an edge. While it would be beneficial, analyzing a vast amount of data isn’t possible for the average NFL handicapper. However, you need to be able to master the basics, such as understanding all of the bet types at your disposal.
You should also understand home field advantage and how the weather plays a role in NFL betting. If there’s a lot of rain or snow, teams aren’t going to be able to pass it as effectively, so often the team with the best run game will win these types of games. Small home underdogs are popular bets and that’s because home field advantage is huge.
By mastering the basics, such as bankroll management, bet types, bet sizing, line shopping, statistics and more, you’ll quickly notice that betting becomes a lot easier and everything will start to click. Chasing big wins is fun, but if you’re serious about profiting over the long term, slow and steady will always win the race.