The odds of there being a new Premier League champion this season have gotten ever shorter since the season began.
Sportsbooks always saw the title race as a battle between two teams – two-time defending champion Manchester City and last year’s runner up, Liverpool – but the Citizens were heavy favorites entering the season. The reigning champs were odds-on at 2/3 before Matchday 1, with Liverpool roughly 5/2, according to latest Premier League odds graphed out from opening in August to current.
With 11 matches down and 27 to go, Liverpool (31 points) have opened up a six-point lead on the field, with City sitting second (25 points) and Leicester and Chelsea tied for third (23 points). The early results have seen Liverpool and City flip-flop in the futures market. The Reds are now 4/5 to win their first Premier League title since 1990, while Man City is 5/4 to make it three straight.
Despite being just two points behind City, Leicester and Chelsea are both in the 40/1 neighbourhood.
Some may view Liverpool and City’s odds as incongruous with their current standing. There’s not much to choose between 4/5 and 5/4, while six points is a sizable gap to makeup with 30% of the season elapsed.
But the numbers (other than point totals) suggest City is still the stronger team. They have a far superior goal differential (+24 vs +16) and a much higher “expected point total” according to UnderStat.com, suggesting they have been unlucky to lose twice already.
The biggest game of the Premier League season, so far, takes place this Sunday at Anfield when Man City visits the prey they are attempting to hunt down.
One way or another, the title odds are going to look considerably different come Monday morning. If Liverpool win or draw, they will be at least six points clear with only one head-to-head meeting remaining. A win would likely see their title odds speed past ½.
However, if Man City earns the full three, they will then be just three points back with a game at Etihad still to play on April 4th. Oddsmakers will once again view Man City as the odds-on favorite, despite remaining in second place for the time being.