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Why Tammy Abraham would be an excellent signing for Arsenal

It is shaping up to be a huge summer for Arsenal, as the club are linked to several incomings and outgoings. The Telegraph report that the Gunners are interested in Chelsea striker Tammy Abraham. Despite proving that he can score regularly in the Premier League, the England international has been used rarely by Thomas Tuchel. A summer move away looks to be on the cards, as he attempts to reignite his career following an underwhelming 12 months.

Arsenal will be looking to strengthen their own forward ranks, as their top scorer in the Premier League last season was Alexandre Lacazette. The Frenchman scored 13 goals, but it is believed that he could be on his way out of the club. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang had his least impressive campaign at the Emirates Stadium, while Eddie Nketiah has also been linked with a move away. The Gunners could be starting the season with few options in attack.

Abraham would be an excellent signing.  He has scored 21 Premier League goals during the last two seasons, at a rate of one every 155.1 minutes. This is a very good record and shows that he can carry a regular goal threat in the top flight. Although he can be frustrating, he is excellent at getting into dangerous positions and some Chelsea supporters believe he has been underused by Tuchel. Last season, Timo Werner played more than double the minutes than Abraham and the German only managed to score as many as the academy graduate.

In terms of his underlying numbers, Abraham averages 2.71 shots per ninety minutes. This ranks him in the 68th percentile when compared with other strikers. His quality is best shown by his average of 0.58 non-penalty goals per ninety minutes, which places him in the 85th percentile. The 23-year-old averages 0.56 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per ninety minutes, underlining that his scoring rate is sustainable.

He ranks in the 92nd percentile for npxG when compared with other strikers. There are few better at getting into goal-scoring positions. As he isn’t a high volume shooter, this shows Abraham’s intelligence and ability to get into dangerous positions. He regularly positions himself between the posts. Some supporters have criticised him for being wasteful, but he continues to get on the end of big chances and that underlines what he offers on the pitch.

Abraham is good in the air, winning 3.16 aerial duels per ninety minutes. This gives him an additional threat in the final third. However, there is work to be done on his overall game, as he isn’t the best at linking up play. His pass success rate last season was 72.7%. Some believe this was one of the reasons why Tuchel didn’t use him very often.

Throughout his career, Abraham has always scored goals at an impressive rate. He continued that at Chelsea and managed to play a key role while the club were under a transfer embargo. During the 2019/20 season, he scored 15 times and helped the club finish in the top four.

At the age of 23, there is a lot of potential and his goal-scoring will improve with experience. If he continues to get into goal-scoring positions at the same frequency, he will become more clinical. The talent is there to become a player capable of playing regularly in the Champions League and for England.

Chelsea may not trust Abraham to start regularly, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a very good striker already. Arsenal are at a crossroads. They aren’t in Europe this season and there is an opportunity to reset. Abraham would be an excellent signing and one that could grow with the club.

Stats taken from Whoscored and fbref (powered by Statsbomb)

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