Why Football Betting Strategies Are Not A Golden Ticket

Why Football Betting Strategies Are Not A Golden Ticket

By no stretch of the imagination are betting strategies the be-all and end-all of sports betting. They are often presented as a sure fire way to pick up big profits. But they are not completely foolproof.

While having a good betting plan can certainly help with a steady approach to betting, there are considerations to take. Signing up with a bookmaker – whether by a promotion in the UK or by using bonus bet codes Australia offers, or by offers in other parts of the world –  gets you a platform to bet on. But is it worth employing a football strategy?

What Is A Football Strategy?

A football strategy is a framework that lays out steps to follow. You follow the betting plan and in the large part, the mathematics will show in some form, how a profit can be turned from it.

However, a lot of football betting strategies don’t consider one very important thing – the bankroll. Betting strategies like The Kelly System, the Martingale, the Fibonacci, the d’Alembert and the Labouchere systems work off the basis that you have a bottomless pit of money.

An example is a simple strategy where if your first bet loses, then you double the unit of stake for the next and so on. However, if there is a big losing streak, you are going to need more and more stakes to try and cover the lost bets that have already passed. That increases risk further. It’s why no betting system is foolproof.

Understanding That Losses Happen

The famous Gambler’s Fallacy is a situation where you expect to win the next bet because you are ‘due’ one after a losing streak. It’s like black coming up five times in a row on the roulette table, so you bet on red.

But that sixth spin has nothing to do with the preceding five. It’s still roughly a 47-48% chance that you have on that spin (not 50/50 because of the green 0 and 00 spaces). You have to look at every bet as an individual wager.

Be Flexible and Test

A good way to see how a particular betting strategy can work for you is to test it out on paper first. Follow the plan for a couple of weeks to see if it is something that you want to work with. Test out real results from football matches with odds from bookmakers.

A key point about any kind of football betting plan is to be flexible. If there is a strategy that isn’t working, then be ready to adjust and tweak it. Maybe you need to get back to the stats and rework something.

Bankroll

Always be guided by your bankroll. That’s probably the most important part of any betting strategy for football. Set your limit over a set amount of time. Out of your overall bankroll, you will look to use up to 5% on an individual match. Never go chasing losses. It is easily the biggest pitfall to slip into.

Create Your Own

If your focus for football betting is only on the EPL then you will have a working knowledge of the top flight. That means you are in a position to create your football betting strategy which doesn’t have to be overly complicated.

A simplified approach to a football strategy for Premier League betting could be 1-Goal Winning Margin Picks, low-odds picks, home underdogs, half-time draws or an Over/Under Goals for a team.

It’s best to focus on the markets that you understand and on odds that continuously fall in your preferred scope and line up with your stake per bet. You can always choose a bookmaker, markets and odds comparing them at Match.Center.

Choosing the Right Strategy for Football Betting

There is no one-size-fits-all solution for the right strategy. Any strategy is a nuanced thing. Stake and the frequency of finding the selections at the right odds are the big factors to consider.

The right strategy for football betting is going to suit your style of betting. Here are some ideas to get started with building your strategy.

  • Play roughly the same odds – If you are picking wildly different odds then there’s no real way to gauge performance
  • Keep to the same stake – Don’t shuffle up your stake either, keep it consistent
  • Live betting – It is huge for football betting strategy, like betting on over 1.5 goals after 3-0 minutes at 0-0
  • Be careful with Cup Games – These are generally far more unpredictable compared to league action where you can read form and stats
  • Understand a League/Market – Avoid markets from football leagues that you aren’t familiar with. Knowledge is power, so become a specialist in say the Premier League.