How important is the time of the first goal? | Stats Analysis

How important is the time of the first goal? | Stats Analysis

I thought it would be interesting to review the games which took place on 29th and 30th of December, focussing on the time of the first goal. In six of these games the first goal was scored by the away side within the first 20 minutes; of the other four games, three of them saw a home goal within the first twenty. The odd one out was Sunderland v Spurs which ended 1-2, with the first goal scored By O'Shea …
Manchester United 4 Newcastle 3 | Match Review using shot strength stats

Manchester United 4 Newcastle 3 | Match Review using shot strength stats

There will be hundreds of reviews of the Manchester United v Newcastle game discussing formations and showing how exciting the game. I would like, then, to show the raw data, mapping the game, to show that it is possible to predict the expectation of goals during a game by looking at shots as time decays. Background data before the game started Manchester United won 7 and lost 3 when conceding first, so we know they have strength of character to not lose …
Shots on Target & Goals Stats: Using Data Analysis to form betting decisions?

Shots on Target & Goals Stats: Using Data Analysis to form betting decisions?

Many of you may have seen the movie (or read the book) Moneyball. The story charts Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane's attempt to put together a baseball club on a budget by employing computer-generated analysis, getting the most out of what were considered to be very average players. Can we transfer the idea of computer-generated analysis to our betting decisions? There are a few hundred betting websites, and many of them will have thousands of clients. Everyone wants to be a …
Betting Tips | Trading a game | How long can your team hold the lead?

Betting Tips | Trading a game | How long can your team hold the lead?

In this post I am going to explore the average time it takes a Premier League team to fight back from a goal down, comparing this to the average time that a Premier League team tends to hang on to a lead. Firstly, I'll set out the parameters that I used in assessing these statistics: In order to make this research as topical as possible, I chose to use data from this season. You are welcome to check the corresponding …
At Home, down 1-0 at Half Time. How often do you win? | Stats Analysis

At Home, down 1-0 at Half Time. How often do you win? | Stats Analysis

Recently, I looked at a large sample of away teams losing 1-0 at half-time and discovered that they find it very difficult to make a comeback and win the fixture. In this article, I explore the degree to which we might expect that the home team, similarly fighting a 0-1 deficit, fights back to win the game. I fired up my Excel spreadsheets, dating as far back as the 2008/9 season, and calculated how many times the current crop of …
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