Prediction Model: FA Cup Week | City or Chelsea? Arsenal or Liverpool?

Prediction Model: FA Cup Week | City or Chelsea? Arsenal or Liverpool?

We've got four all-Premier League ties in this weekend's FA Cup so I thought it would be fun to push them through the prediction model and have a quick update on who it thinks will be progressing. These runs use the same algorithm and data as our usual EPL simulations and I've never tried predicting the FA Cup before, so do bear that in mind if you're having a bet. This one's just for fun and to give me something …
Prediction Model | Arsenal to beat Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool to win

Prediction Model | Arsenal to beat Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool to win

Another strong start for the model last weekend and then some disappointing results. We only gave Arsenal a 14% chance at Anfield in the early Saturday kick off and that proved to be a good call as Liverpool ran out easy 5-1 winners. In the Saturday three o'clock games, the controversial call of Norwich to beat Manchester City very nearly happened. The game finished 0-0, but with Norwich going very close towards the end. I'm never too disappointed when the …
Prediction Model Wk 25 | Liverpool to beat Arsenal, Chelsea & City to win

Prediction Model Wk 25 | Liverpool to beat Arsenal, Chelsea & City to win

Last weekend had definitely been coming. The model's been averaging well above its long term expected performance since Christmas and it had to come back down to earth at some point. Things were looking rosy after the Saturday lunchtime kick-offs gave us a correct call of Sunderland to win away at Newcastle and then it all went downhill from there. Norwich almost managed the predicted draw away at Cardiff, Villa were winning at Everton with sixteen minutes to go, Kolo …
Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd win and Chelsea to lose

Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd win and Chelsea to lose

I'm still smiling from the mid-week fixtures. Love or hate the tactics that got West Ham a draw at Chelsea, they were predictable and we saw them coming. I said in my last post that the most likely outcome - by some distance - from the game was a Chelsea win, but that at over 27% probability, the draw was definitely worth a bet. Overall, we picked six games out of ten across Tuesday and Wednesday, which keeps the average …
EPL Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man Utd to win

EPL Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man Utd to win

Back from the FA Cup weekend and I've been using the gap in the Premier League fixture list to further develop the EPL Model. Unfortunately, this time without much success. An agent based model isn't like the majority of statistical models, where if you make a change you can usually see fairly quickly whether or not your new model is better than the old one. When I change the EPL Model, I re-run a season (at least) of historical fixtures …
Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool to win, Man Utd to beat Chelsea?

Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool to win, Man Utd to beat Chelsea?

Last week marked the model's best performance so far this season, with eight correct predictions out of ten and a profit of 64% if you followed its calls for betting. Although maybe we shouldn't get too carried away with that one as the FT reports that a lot of people did very well on round 21 and the bookies suffered an awful weekend. Coral called it one of their worst weeks in 88 years. Those bad results for the bookies …
Prediction Model: WK 21 | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea all to win

Prediction Model: WK 21 | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea all to win

The model really showed what it can do over the Christmas period, putting in a solid set of predictions for rounds 18 to 20 (Boxing Day to New Year) and bringing back a very nice return if you were using it to bet. Overall, it picked 18 results from the 30 games and finished with an average profit of 34% per bet. If you'd staked £10 per game - £300 in total for the three rounds - you'd have won …
Prediction Model: Liverpool, Arsenal to win | Chelsea, Man Utd to lose

Prediction Model: Liverpool, Arsenal to win | Chelsea, Man Utd to lose

We're just about at the halfway mark in the season and the model's been flying over the Christmas period. Up 35% at the bookies in the past two rounds, with six results out of ten called correctly on Boxing Day and seven out of ten last weekend. When I first started putting these models together, I was surprised at how few results the bookies actually get right. That's not to say the model's better! But I had the impression that …
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