EPL Prediction Model | Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd to win & Chelsea to lose!

EPL Prediction Model | Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd to win & Chelsea to lose!

The new passing algorithm's off to a flying start and gave us a late Christmas present on Boxing Day, with six results out of ten called correctly, including Crystal Palace's away win at Villa. As is (almost) always the case, the model missed one result by quite a distance, this time in its suggestion that Cardiff would beat Southampton. Managerial sub-plots and teams that don't turn up on the day are always going to be a problem for a model …
EPL Prediction Model: Wk 16 Forecasts | City to beat Arsenal & Spurs over Liverpool

EPL Prediction Model: Wk 16 Forecasts | City to beat Arsenal & Spurs over Liverpool

Well last week was definitely a roller-coaster. Almost brilliant. So close! But ultimately disappointing. The model made two very big calls last week; it said Manchester United could lose at home to Newcastle and that Southampton had a good chance of beating Manchester City at St Mary's. Man United first and while the model gave some people a cracking start to the weekend (says Twitter) as they backed Newcastle, I decided to wait and see if van Persie was starting. …
EPL Prediction Model: Week 15 Forecasts | Arsenal, Chelsea win, United loss?

EPL Prediction Model: Week 15 Forecasts | Arsenal, Chelsea win, United loss?

Games have been coming thick and fast and the model's been holding its own for the past few weeks. No spectacular wins on the betting, but if you've been following its calls, then Tuesday night marked three profitable rounds in a row. Six mid-week results were called correctly, with the games at Arsenal, Liverpool, Stoke, Sunderland, Fulham and West Brom all running as forecast. There were a few odd games, where the dominant team lost: West Ham at Palace, Southampton …
Prediction Model: Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool to win, City to Smash 5?

Prediction Model: Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool to win, City to Smash 5?

We've got a big week coming up, with a full schedule of games on Saturday and Sunday and then again in mid-week. Just this weekend's predictions for the moment and then I'll try to get a post up on Sunday or Monday for the next set. Partly, we'll need to adjust for any injuries that come up on Saturday and Sunday so that the starting line-ups in the model for the mid-week round will be as accurate as possible. I'm …
EPL Prediction Model: Week 12 Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool to win?

EPL Prediction Model: Week 12 Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool to win?

First things first, and the model would like to apologise for last time out... If it wasn't for Charlie Adam's penalty, that would have been comfortably the worst week it's ever had, including running diagnostics right across the past two seasons. The natural volatility of Premier League football results means you'll get one of those weekends now and again but I still don't have to like them. To my eye the percentages weren't all that bad and a lot of …
Results Prediction Model: Premier League forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea

Results Prediction Model: Premier League forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea

Last January, I started work on a model that would use EPL Index's Opta stats to predict the results of football games. It ran during the latter part of the 2012-13 season on my own blog, calling 55% of results correctly from March to May and turning a tidy overall profit at the bookies of £166.50, playing £10 stakes on every game. This season it's going to run again, but with a new home for the predictions on EPL Index! …
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