The betting markets have spoken and Arsenal are now overwhelming favourites to win the 2025 League title at 8/11. Manchester City are around 10/3 and Liverpool are out at 4/1.
It would seem reactionary at best seeing as Liverpool headed into the season as favourites, current winners, and having spent almost half a billion. While they have lost four on the bounce, they’re still only four points from top of the league, less than a quarter of the way into the season. So, does this say something deeper about the way odds work and their reactionary nature? And could this mean markets with lower betting volumes, like the best online betting sites in India, lead to being less reactionary?
The recent form narrative
Arsenal’s status as heavy favourites comes from their position after eight matches. Top of the league and just three goals conceded. But, let’s not forget they lost to Liverpool only a couple of weeks ago.
Meanwhile, Liverpool’s odds have crashed following a shocking home defeat to Manchester United. For Arne Slot’s champions to lose at Anfield to their bitter rivals, it clearly means more to bettors than just three dropped points. Admittedly, things are shaping up differently to last season for them.
Manchester City, despite sitting second with 16 points, find themselves at 10/3 after a fairly inconsistent start by their lofty standards. Pep Guardiola’s side have already suffered two defeats in their opening eight games.
What the supercomputer sees
Here’s where probability theory collides with betting market sentiment, and this isn’t just true of this season, but happens frequently. The Opta supercomputer (it simulates the remaining fixtures thousands of times using historical data, betting odds, etc) paints a different picture.
Arsenal’s 54.04% win probability seems reasonable for league leaders, but it’s not perfectly representative of their 8/11 odds, which suggest roughly a 58% chance. The gap is wider further down though, with Liverpool given a 17.21% chance despite 4/1 odds (implying just 20% probability), while Manchester City’s 17.05% sits uncomfortably against their 10/3 pricing. The super computer basically thinks Liverpool and City have the same chances of winning the title. But the odds do not.
The model recognizes what casual bettors (who make up the betting market and its odds) might miss: with 30 matches remaining, an eight-game sample size reveals correlation, not causation.
The recency bias problem
Betting markets are inherently reactive and knee-jerk. They respond to the latest results with the assumption that this momentum (like Liverpool’s losing streak) will continue.
Statistical models also recognize that all three title contenders have exceptional squads. Arsenal may lead now, but they have injuries, and City’s squad depth and Liverpool’s championship experience suggests the race will tighten. Well, it is tight already points-wise, which the odds do not reflect either.
The reality check
Clearly, it’s difficult to know what the chances of a team winning the title are. But what we can do is assess whether we think the odds are right or wrong, and if they’re long, we may be able to pick up value. A good time to do this is during moments of instability or changing momentum, as markets can overreact and write teams off too early.
