Last weekend had definitely been coming. The model’s been averaging well above its long term expected performance since Christmas and it had to come back down to earth at some point.
Things were looking rosy after the Saturday lunchtime kick-offs gave us a correct call of Sunderland to win away at Newcastle and then it all went downhill from there. Norwich almost managed the predicted draw away at Cardiff, Villa were winning at Everton with sixteen minutes to go, Kolo Toure gifted Anichebe with West Brom’s equaliser and a Man United side containing van Persie, Rooney and Mata were beaten at Stoke. Not a classic week for the model!
This week will be a little tricky because the transfer window has kicked in and given us quite a few players without an existing data history. Have a look at Fantasy Football Scout to see the predicted starting line-ups that the model’s using. When a player is brand new and has no data, I swap them for the player that they’ve replaced, unless it’s a move like Mata’s where we can lift his Chelsea stats straight across to Manchester United.
Here are the percentages for this week:
And passing and shooting stats:
I have to admit to some surprise that the model still doesn’t like Manchester City away from home. If this one runs as previous away loss predictions have done, we’re likely to see Norwich hold out long enough to make Man City uncomfortable, but not long enough for three points.
We’re predicting a debut win for Garry Monk as Swansea’s player-coach and Arsenal’s chances at Liverpool look a lot like Everton’s did before last Tuesday evening. We’ll see…
Here are the model’s predictions:
Liverpool v Arsenal – Home win
Aston Villa v West Ham United – Draw
Chelsea v Newcastle United – Home win
Crystal Palace v West Bromwich Albion – Away win
Norwich City v Manchester City – Home win
Southampton v Stoke City – Home win
Sunderland v Hull City – Home win
Swansea City v Cardiff City – Home win
Tottenham Hotspur v Everton – Home win
Manchester United v Fulham – Home win