Prediction Model: Week 28 | Liverpool and Chelsea to win, Arsenal to lose!

Prediction Model: Week 28 | Liverpool and Chelsea to win, Arsenal to lose!

It's a prediction model update without the usual preamble this week. The @data_monkey household has gained a new member and although he shares a first name with Leo Messi, he doesn't share his enthusiasm for football. Or my enthusiasm for football stats. (Yet). The model's fairly quick to update so I'll keep posting predictions here each week, but detailed discussion of the forecasts and past performances might be a bit thin on the ground for a few weeks. Normal service …
Prediction Model: FA Cup Week | City or Chelsea? Arsenal or Liverpool?

Prediction Model: FA Cup Week | City or Chelsea? Arsenal or Liverpool?

We've got four all-Premier League ties in this weekend's FA Cup so I thought it would be fun to push them through the prediction model and have a quick update on who it thinks will be progressing. These runs use the same algorithm and data as our usual EPL simulations and I've never tried predicting the FA Cup before, so do bear that in mind if you're having a bet. This one's just for fun and to give me something …
Prediction Model | Arsenal to beat Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool to win

Prediction Model | Arsenal to beat Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool to win

Another strong start for the model last weekend and then some disappointing results. We only gave Arsenal a 14% chance at Anfield in the early Saturday kick off and that proved to be a good call as Liverpool ran out easy 5-1 winners. In the Saturday three o'clock games, the controversial call of Norwich to beat Manchester City very nearly happened. The game finished 0-0, but with Norwich going very close towards the end. I'm never too disappointed when the …
Prediction Model Wk 25 | Liverpool to beat Arsenal, Chelsea & City to win

Prediction Model Wk 25 | Liverpool to beat Arsenal, Chelsea & City to win

Last weekend had definitely been coming. The model's been averaging well above its long term expected performance since Christmas and it had to come back down to earth at some point. Things were looking rosy after the Saturday lunchtime kick-offs gave us a correct call of Sunderland to win away at Newcastle and then it all went downhill from there. Norwich almost managed the predicted draw away at Cardiff, Villa were winning at Everton with sixteen minutes to go, Kolo …
Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd win and Chelsea to lose

Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd win and Chelsea to lose

I'm still smiling from the mid-week fixtures. Love or hate the tactics that got West Ham a draw at Chelsea, they were predictable and we saw them coming. I said in my last post that the most likely outcome - by some distance - from the game was a Chelsea win, but that at over 27% probability, the draw was definitely worth a bet. Overall, we picked six games out of ten across Tuesday and Wednesday, which keeps the average …
EPL Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man Utd to win

EPL Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man Utd to win

Back from the FA Cup weekend and I've been using the gap in the Premier League fixture list to further develop the EPL Model. Unfortunately, this time without much success. An agent based model isn't like the majority of statistical models, where if you make a change you can usually see fairly quickly whether or not your new model is better than the old one. When I change the EPL Model, I re-run a season (at least) of historical fixtures …