Last week was a strange one. Overall we finished fourteen percent up at the bookies by betting the same stake on each game, but only three results were called correctly out of the weekend’s eight games.
We kicked off with a cracking Saturday, successfully predicting wins for Stoke at home to Arsenal, Liverpool away at Southampton and Chelsea away at Fulham. Then things were looking good on Sunday for a Swansea win and possibly for Cardiff to grab their predicted draw at Spurs too, but neither of those results came through.
Still, a win’s a win and performance will often look a bit wobbly on a weekend with fewer than ten games. Over the long run, the model should average a little over 50% of results called correctly and be profitable at that level, but with only eight games played, the psychological difference between only three correct, compared to four or five, is huge!
This week, we’ve got five Premier League games to play with and a couple of all-Premier League FA Cup ties. The FA Cup simulation experiment went quite well last time around, so I’ve added these as a bit of fun as well as the usual league game predictions.
Here are the model’s percentages:
Passing and shooting stats:
And finally, our predicted results for this weekend:
West Bromwich Albion v Manchester United – Away win
Cardiff City v Fulham – Draw
Crystal Palace v Southampton – Draw
Norwich City v Stoke City – Home win
Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur – Home win
Arsenal v Everton – Home win
Hull City v Sunderland – Draw
I’m still not betting on the FA Cup – those two are just for fun, but if you’re having a punt tomorrow then let us know on Twitter using #EPLModel. Bring on the return to a full fixture list next weekend!