HomeZ OLD CATEGORIESArsenal (NN)Prediction Model: Wk 31 | Chelsea, Liverpool, City to win, Arsenal to...

Prediction Model: Wk 31 | Chelsea, Liverpool, City to win, Arsenal to lose

We start this week with two pieces of good news. Firstly, last weekend saw six results out of ten predicted correctly with a tidy 33% profit at the bookies and secondly – thanks to some nice work by @We_R_PL – we now know that the model is better at calling Premier League results than Lawro.

It may not sound like a high bar to set and people do love to mock Lawro’s predictions but he’s actually pretty good and at least the equal of the bookmakers.

EPL Model 1 – 0 Ex-Liverpool defenders.

Let’s see if we can keep the good run going. On to this week’s percentages…


Here are the more detailed possession and goalscoring stats:

22-3 Detailed

And finally, our predictions for this week:

Chelsea v Arsenal – Home win
Cardiff City v Liverpool – Away win
Everton v Swansea City – Home win
Hull City v West Bromwich Albion – Draw
Manchester City v Fulham – Home win
Newcastle United v Crystal Palace – Home win
Norwich City v Sunderland – Draw
West Ham United v Manchester United – Away win
Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton – Away win
Aston Villa v Stoke City – Draw

The model’s predicting Chelsea to spoil Arsene Wenger’s 1000th game party, Everton and Manchester City to see comfortable wins and Liverpool to win in South Wales. Manchester United are most likely get the away win at West Ham but there are only a few percentage points between the teams. We’re backing the Man United win but don’t be too surprised if the Hammers pile the pressure back onto Moyes.

Our upset pick this week – it seems there’s always one – is for Southampton to grab a win at Spurs. Good luck with your bets and I’ll see you on Monday ahead of the mid-week round.

Statistical analyst and econometrician, working for a large marketing agency. Football stats are much more interesting.
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