HomeZ OLD CATEGORIESArsenal (NN)EPL Prediction Model: Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool and Newcastle to win

EPL Prediction Model: Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool and Newcastle to win

I’m just posting a quick update today with predictions for Tuesday and Wednesday nights, then we’ll be back to a full fixture list ahead of next Saturday.

We were a little unlucky this past weekend, just about breaking even with six wins out of eight on Saturday and then looking for either a draw at Villa or for Southampton to win away at Spurs on Sunday to make it a nicely profitable set of fixtures. With Southampton 2-0 up after half an hour – and to my eye it could have been more – things were looking rosy, but it wasn’t to be.

Six out of ten isn’t bad though and the model only finished down by fractions across the weekend, so bank balance intact, we’re onto the next set of fixtures.

Here are the mid-week percentages:


We’ll be going against the bookies in three out of the five games, although West Ham vs. Hull is incredibly tight and Newcastle vs. Everton is fractions of a percent away from being called as a draw.

The stand-out prediction is obviously Manchester United to win. We might be looking at a very big night for David Moyes and for the title race.

Here are the model’s shooting and possession stats:

25-3 detailed

And finally, our predictions:

Arsenal v Swansea City – Home win
Manchester United v Manchester City – Home win
Newcastle United v Everton – Home win
West Ham United v Hull City – Away win
Liverpool v Sunderland – Home win

Statistical analyst and econometrician, working for a large marketing agency. Football stats are much more interesting.
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