HomeZ OLD CATEGORIESArsenal (NN)EPL Prediction Model: Liverpool, Chelsea, City to Win, Arsenal to Lose

EPL Prediction Model: Liverpool, Chelsea, City to Win, Arsenal to Lose

The model came very close to a fantastic weekend last week but fell short, and in the end was fairly disappointing. Going firmly against the bookies, we’d predicted Manchester City to lose to Arsenal and Crystal Palace to get a draw against Chelsea. Man City and Chelsea both failed to win, but unfortunately we had the loss and the draw the wrong way around.

West Brom were predicted to win against Cardiff and were 2-0 up, then back to 2-2, then 3-2 up in injury time and finally drew 3-3, while Sunderland came back strongly against West Ham but couldn’t quite earn the draw forecast by the model.

We’re rapidly approaching the end of the season and I’ll have news on plans for the summer and developments for next season when we get closer. For now though, here are this week’s percentages:


Only one major upset on the list this week as the model predicts that Sunderland could pick up a huge away win at Tottenham. If Everton also beat Arsenal as we’re forecasting, then the race for fourth will become very lively!

Here are the usual deeper statistics on passing and shooting from the simulations:

5-3 - detailed

And finally, the model’s predictions:

Manchester City v Southampton – Home win
Aston Villa v Fulham – Home win
Cardiff City v Crystal Palace – Draw
Hull City v Swansea City – Draw
Newcastle United v Manchester United – Away win
Norwich City v West Bromwich Albion – Draw
Chelsea v Stoke City – Home win
Everton v Arsenal – Home win
West Ham United v Liverpool – Away win
Tottenham Hotspur v Sunderland – Away win

Statistical analyst and econometrician, working for a large marketing agency. Football stats are much more interesting.
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