The model’s been struggling with games further down the league in recent weeks and we’ll have to see if this trend continues to the end of the season. While draws between mid-table teams are normally a good source of profit, we’ve missed quite a few by a single goal and managerial changes – in particular at Crystal Palace – haven’t helped prediction accuracy either.
I now have eyes firmly on next season and a brand new version of the model that will keep the best of the methodology of the current EPL Model, but consign every line of code written so far to the scrap heap. It’s going to be a long summer of programming! One of the huge advantages of the rebuild will be the ability to re-run the model very quickly when actual starting line-ups are announced ahead of kick-off. It’s definitely hurt prediction accuracy this season, running with Fantasy Football Scout’s best estimate of teams on a Thursday night.
Before that though, we have three rounds of games left and a chance for the model to end the season strongly. Here are the percentages for this week:
We have some very close calls on the list, with Southampton v Everton, Fulham v Hull and Stoke v Tottenham having only a couple of percentage points between them. The Fulham game is the first this season where by our standard rules, we can’t actually pick a winner, with exactly 37% probability to either side. Many of the games are very close to being called as draws, too.
In the big game – as we saw last week – Liverpool are expected to beat Chelsea, but who knows what team Jose will play? We’d be predicting Liverpool to beat a full-strength Chelsea though, so for our purposes today, it doesn’t really matter who starts.
Here are the detailed possession and shooting stats:
And finally, the model’s predictions:
Southampton v Everton – Very, very close. Away win
Fulham v Hull City – Exactly equal probabilities! Draw
Stoke City v Tottenham Hotspur – Home win
Swansea City v Aston Villa – Away win
West Bromwich Albion v West Ham United – Away win
Manchester United v Norwich City – Home win
Sunderland v Cardiff City – Draw
Liverpool v Chelsea – Home win
Crystal Palace v Manchester City – Away win
Arsenal v Newcastle United – Home win