Omar Chaudhuri

Economics student, football-obsessed & creator of 5 Added Minutes.

http://5addedminutes.wordpress.com/

The not-so-dangerous 2-0 lead | Analysing the 2-0 advantage

The not-so-dangerous 2-0 lead | Analysing the 2-0 advantage

[caption id="attachment_931" align="alignright" width="240" caption="QPR beat Liverpool from 2-0 down - an exception to the rule"][/caption] Some might argue Liverpool's capitulation at Queen's Park Rangers last month was the perfect example of 2-0 being a dangerous lead. Cruising against a side battling relegation, Liverpool's complacency turned into anxiety and then panic as QPR scored three in thirteen minutes to win the game. Yet this was the first time Liverpool had dropped points from a 2-0 lead in nine and a …
Summing the parts | Liverpool Midfield

Summing the parts | Liverpool Midfield

There’s a chapter in Michael Lewis’ Moneyball called ‘Giambi’s Hole’, which discusses in part how the Oakland Athletics replaced their star first baseman Jason Giambi. Lewis describes the thinking:
The A’s front office had broken down Giambi into his obvious offensive statistics – walks, singles, doubles, home runs – along with his less obvious ones – pitches seen per plate appearance, walk to strikeout ratio – and asked: which can we afford to replace? The previous season Giambi’s on-base percentage …
Premier League Passing Trends 2011/12

Premier League Passing Trends 2011/12

Pass completion statistics are fast becoming a popular measure of player evaluation, no doubt aided by the fact that Barcelona have set a benchmark at the top of club football. Like all statistics though, and perhaps even more so for passing data, more context is required, particularly when you note thatLeon Britton has trumped Xavi in the pass completion stakes so far this season. However, looking at the other numbers it’s clear to see why Xavi is a Champions League …
EPL Stats | Who's the dirtiest of them all?

EPL Stats | Who's the dirtiest of them all?

Various Premier League teams over the years have often been accused of playing ‘dirty’. The style is seen to break up the rhythm of more talented opponents, and can often work. So who's the dirtiest of them all? Currently, Stoke are perceived to be the biggest proponents of this method, and only two teams have made more fouls than the Potters so far this season: But it strikes me that teams who spend more time without the ball – teams …
Measuring LFC chance conversion concerns

Measuring LFC chance conversion concerns

Liverpool’s painful inability to take chances this season has now been well-documented. Last season, the Reds scored 59 goals from 434 shots, a conversion rate of 13.6%. This season 21 goals have come from 256 attempts at a paltry conversion rate of 8.2%. I thought I’d illustrate this alarming decline by testing the probability of scoring 21 goals from 256 attempts given last season’s conversion. If Liverpool’s ‘true’ conversion rate is 13.6%, there is a 0.5% chance of scoring 21 …
Man United | Tightening up defensive leaks

Man United | Tightening up defensive leaks

Manchester United’s early season defensive problems appear to have gone away, conceding only one goal in the last four league games - and that too a contentious penalty at home to Newcastle. Rather than delve into the reasons behind this new-found defensive solidity – feel free to speculate below – I thought I’d simply illustrate the effect the Manchester City match had on shots conceded (click to enlarge). The key comparison is between the second and third bars; shots conceded …
Norwich strikers | Morison v Holt

Norwich strikers | Morison v Holt

Perhaps the biggest selection issue for Norwich this season has been their dilemma up front. Last season’s top scorer Grant Holt has been far from assured a place in the team, largely eclipsed by summer signing Steve Morison. The two have started a game together just twice in eleven matches. Holt’s inability to get in the team has surprised many, and is somewhat supported by the numbers (click image below to enlarge). It’s still early days, but Holt has not …
Swansea City | Steady progress

Swansea City | Steady progress

Swansea’s Premier League debut was a fairly rude welcome. The Welsh side controlled the ball superbly at Manchester City, yet ended up as 4-0 losers after a second half goal glut from the hosts. Their inefficiencies with the ball were made clear in the aftermath; City were far more productive in the final third despite having 42.4% of possession. Of course the opposition was as tough as it was going to get for Swansea, and they’ve shown plenty of improvement …
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