HomeZ OLD CATEGORIESArsenal (NN)Prediction Model: Liverpool, Chelsea & City to win, Arsenal draw

Prediction Model: Liverpool, Chelsea & City to win, Arsenal draw

Only four games to go and after a decent weekend, the model struggled in mid-week. Few people would have foreseen Manchester City failing to beat Sunderland and the EPL Model didn’t either. I’d warned that the model in its current form can’t adjust well to the huge changes in Pulis’ Crystal Palace and that proved to be the case against Everton, giving us two wrong calls on Wednesday night.

This week, we’ve got the usual predictions and then just for fun, I’ve had a look at Liverpool’s final four games to see if the model thinks there are any banana skins left on their path to the league title…

Here are this week’s percentages:


The possession and shooting stats:

19-4 detailed

And the model’s predictions for this week:

Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham – Home win
Aston Villa v Southampton – Away win
Cardiff City v Stoke City – Home win
Newcastle United v Swansea City – Home win
West Ham United v Crystal Palace – Draw
Chelsea v Sunderland – Home win
Norwich City v Liverpool – Away win
Hull City v Arsenal – Draw
Everton v Manchester United – Home win
Manchester City v West Bromwich Albion – Home win

Now to Liverpool. If we run their final four games – using the starting line-ups for this weekend – here’s what we see:

Liverpool extra

Four wins predicted for the individual games – including against Chelsea – but accumulated probabilities aren’t as simple as that. According to the EPL Model, Liverpool are looking at a chance of winning all four of 67% x 64% x 63% x 83% = 22%. That’s just about one in five. It’s not over yet.

Statistical analyst and econometrician, working for a large marketing agency. Football stats are much more interesting.
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