EPL Prediction Model | Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd to win & Chelsea to lose!

EPL Prediction Model | Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd to win & Chelsea to lose!

The new passing algorithm's off to a flying start and gave us a late Christmas present on Boxing Day, with six results out of ten called correctly, including Crystal Palace's away win at Villa. As is (almost) always the case, the model missed one result by quite a distance, this time in its suggestion that Cardiff would beat Southampton. Managerial sub-plots and teams that don't turn up on the day are always going to be a problem for a model …
Prediction Model Boxing Day Forecasts: Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd to win, Liverpool to lose

Prediction Model Boxing Day Forecasts: Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd to win, Liverpool to lose

Close but no cigar in the pre-Christmas fixtures as the model missed four results by just one goal. We got the games at Swansea, Liverpool and Palace correct and the controversial calls of Man U to draw and Man City to struggle against Fulham turned out to be inaccurate, rather than clever. Fulham did give Man City a brief scare and - as the model suggested they would - scored more than once, but it's results that count. I've been …
EPL Prediction Model 17 | Liverpool & Arsenal to win, United draw?

EPL Prediction Model 17 | Liverpool & Arsenal to win, United draw?

Well last week was definitely more like it! We've been due one of those. I mentioned early in this series of posts that my predictive model was developed through the second half of last season and so in the past, it's always had plenty of data to work with. Starting from the 10th week of this season was a bit of an experiment and has led to more volatile performances than it's seen before and a couple of disappointing weeks. …
EPL Prediction Model: Wk 16 Forecasts | City to beat Arsenal & Spurs over Liverpool

EPL Prediction Model: Wk 16 Forecasts | City to beat Arsenal & Spurs over Liverpool

Well last week was definitely a roller-coaster. Almost brilliant. So close! But ultimately disappointing. The model made two very big calls last week; it said Manchester United could lose at home to Newcastle and that Southampton had a good chance of beating Manchester City at St Mary's. Man United first and while the model gave some people a cracking start to the weekend (says Twitter) as they backed Newcastle, I decided to wait and see if van Persie was starting. …
Prediction Model: Wk 14 Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd to win

Prediction Model: Wk 14 Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd to win

Let's kick off with a quick round-up of Saturday and Sunday before we get onto the midweek game predictions... The past weekend went fairly well, with a small 5% profit if you were betting on the EPL Model's calls. We got six out of ten results correct, with the games at Chelsea, Man City, Cardiff, Everton, Norwich and Newcastle all running as forecast. Fulham was the big miss this week, with a predicted draw coming out as a comfortable West …
Prediction Model: Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool to win, City to Smash 5?

Prediction Model: Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool to win, City to Smash 5?

We've got a big week coming up, with a full schedule of games on Saturday and Sunday and then again in mid-week. Just this weekend's predictions for the moment and then I'll try to get a post up on Sunday or Monday for the next set. Partly, we'll need to adjust for any injuries that come up on Saturday and Sunday so that the starting line-ups in the model for the mid-week round will be as accurate as possible. I'm …
EPL Prediction Model: Week 12 Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool to win?

EPL Prediction Model: Week 12 Forecasts | Arsenal, Liverpool to win?

First things first, and the model would like to apologise for last time out... If it wasn't for Charlie Adam's penalty, that would have been comfortably the worst week it's ever had, including running diagnostics right across the past two seasons. The natural volatility of Premier League football results means you'll get one of those weekends now and again but I still don't have to like them. To my eye the percentages weren't all that bad and a lot of …
Premier League Results Predictor Model: Round 10 results | How many were correct?

Premier League Results Predictor Model: Round 10 results | How many were correct?

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