Prediction Model: Wk 31 | Chelsea, Liverpool, City to win, Arsenal to lose

Prediction Model: Wk 31 | Chelsea, Liverpool, City to win, Arsenal to lose

We start this week with two pieces of good news. Firstly, last weekend saw six results out of ten predicted correctly with a tidy 33% profit at the bookies and secondly - thanks to some nice work by @We_R_PL - we now know that the model is better at calling Premier League results than Lawro. It may not sound like a high bar to set and people do love to mock Lawro's predictions but he's actually pretty good and at …
EPL Prediction Model: Wk 30 | Liverpool, Chelsea to win, Arsenal to lose!

EPL Prediction Model: Wk 30 | Liverpool, Chelsea to win, Arsenal to lose!

We're three quarters of the way through the season and it's time for a look back. I've posted updates each week giving some detail about how the previous round went, but haven't gone right back to the first week of November and the prediction model's first outing. Let's start with the good news. We're winning! If you've bet £10 on every result the model's called since 1st November, you're now £140.56 richer. Here's what that looked like, from November up …
Prediction Model | Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd to win (inc. FA Cup)

Prediction Model | Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd to win (inc. FA Cup)

Last week was a strange one. Overall we finished fourteen percent up at the bookies by betting the same stake on each game, but only three results were called correctly out of the weekend's eight games. We kicked off with a cracking Saturday, successfully predicting wins for Stoke at home to Arsenal, Liverpool away at Southampton and Chelsea away at Fulham. Then things were looking good on Sunday for a Swansea win and possibly for Cardiff to grab their predicted …
Prediction Model: Week 28 | Liverpool and Chelsea to win, Arsenal to lose!

Prediction Model: Week 28 | Liverpool and Chelsea to win, Arsenal to lose!

It's a prediction model update without the usual preamble this week. The @data_monkey household has gained a new member and although he shares a first name with Leo Messi, he doesn't share his enthusiasm for football. Or my enthusiasm for football stats. (Yet). The model's fairly quick to update so I'll keep posting predictions here each week, but detailed discussion of the forecasts and past performances might be a bit thin on the ground for a few weeks. Normal service …
Prediction Model: FA Cup Week | City or Chelsea? Arsenal or Liverpool?

Prediction Model: FA Cup Week | City or Chelsea? Arsenal or Liverpool?

We've got four all-Premier League ties in this weekend's FA Cup so I thought it would be fun to push them through the prediction model and have a quick update on who it thinks will be progressing. These runs use the same algorithm and data as our usual EPL simulations and I've never tried predicting the FA Cup before, so do bear that in mind if you're having a bet. This one's just for fun and to give me something …
Prediction Model | Arsenal to beat Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool to win

Prediction Model | Arsenal to beat Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool to win

Another strong start for the model last weekend and then some disappointing results. We only gave Arsenal a 14% chance at Anfield in the early Saturday kick off and that proved to be a good call as Liverpool ran out easy 5-1 winners. In the Saturday three o'clock games, the controversial call of Norwich to beat Manchester City very nearly happened. The game finished 0-0, but with Norwich going very close towards the end. I'm never too disappointed when the …
Prediction Model Wk 25 | Liverpool to beat Arsenal, Chelsea & City to win

Prediction Model Wk 25 | Liverpool to beat Arsenal, Chelsea & City to win

Last weekend had definitely been coming. The model's been averaging well above its long term expected performance since Christmas and it had to come back down to earth at some point. Things were looking rosy after the Saturday lunchtime kick-offs gave us a correct call of Sunderland to win away at Newcastle and then it all went downhill from there. Norwich almost managed the predicted draw away at Cardiff, Villa were winning at Everton with sixteen minutes to go, Kolo …
Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd win and Chelsea to lose

Prediction Model | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd win and Chelsea to lose

I'm still smiling from the mid-week fixtures. Love or hate the tactics that got West Ham a draw at Chelsea, they were predictable and we saw them coming. I said in my last post that the most likely outcome - by some distance - from the game was a Chelsea win, but that at over 27% probability, the draw was definitely worth a bet. Overall, we picked six games out of ten across Tuesday and Wednesday, which keeps the average …
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