Manchester United 4 Newcastle 3 | Match Review using shot strength stats

Manchester United 4 Newcastle 3 | Match Review using shot strength stats

There will be hundreds of reviews of the Manchester United v Newcastle game discussing formations and showing how exciting the game. I would like, then, to show the raw data, mapping the game, to show that it is possible to predict the expectation of goals during a game by looking at shots as time decays. Background data before the game started Manchester United won 7 and lost 3 when conceding first, so we know they have strength of character to not lose …
Liverpool's failings and Stoke's approach | Match Analysis

Liverpool's failings and Stoke's approach | Match Analysis

Stoke are aware of the value of teams not getting into their final third. In general there is a correlation between final third passing and goals and when a team attacks the Stoke danger zone the Potters make sure that they get behind the ball and allow the other team ball retention. If a team like Liverpool is too slow to recycle possession then this makes it easy for Stoke to prevent shots from becoming shots on target. Taken from the …
Betting: Leeds 1 Chelsea 5 | Shots on Target Review

Betting: Leeds 1 Chelsea 5 | Shots on Target Review

As the game started at Elland Road the rain was falling. Some pundits expected Leeds to pressure Chelsea early on by employing the kind of fast tempo that the downpour might allow. The Yorkshire side did not disappoint in the opening minutes, easily controlling the first five or so. In the opening half both teams were quick to recycle possession and looked professional in their approach. El Hadji Diouf stood out, despite the fact that he has struggled to score …
Shots on Target & Goals Stats: Using Data Analysis to form betting decisions?

Shots on Target & Goals Stats: Using Data Analysis to form betting decisions?

Many of you may have seen the movie (or read the book) Moneyball. The story charts Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane's attempt to put together a baseball club on a budget by employing computer-generated analysis, getting the most out of what were considered to be very average players. Can we transfer the idea of computer-generated analysis to our betting decisions? There are a few hundred betting websites, and many of them will have thousands of clients. Everyone wants to be a …
How crucial is the first goal & the time of the first goal? | Stats

How crucial is the first goal & the time of the first goal? | Stats

In this post I am looking at how often a team Win , Lose  or Draw when scoring or conceding the first goal. I also want to look further into the time of the first goal so offer an info-graphic to show the time of the first goal in 15 minute bands. We can look at the limitations first which is that there have only been 11 games played by the majority of teams but I am looking for trends …
Betting Tips | Trading a game | How long can your team hold the lead?

Betting Tips | Trading a game | How long can your team hold the lead?

In this post I am going to explore the average time it takes a Premier League team to fight back from a goal down, comparing this to the average time that a Premier League team tends to hang on to a lead. Firstly, I'll set out the parameters that I used in assessing these statistics: In order to make this research as topical as possible, I chose to use data from this season. You are welcome to check the corresponding …
At Home, down 1-0 at Half Time. How often do you win? | Stats Analysis

At Home, down 1-0 at Half Time. How often do you win? | Stats Analysis

Recently, I looked at a large sample of away teams losing 1-0 at half-time and discovered that they find it very difficult to make a comeback and win the fixture. In this article, I explore the degree to which we might expect that the home team, similarly fighting a 0-1 deficit, fights back to win the game. I fired up my Excel spreadsheets, dating as far back as the 2008/9 season, and calculated how many times the current crop of …
Down 1-0 Away at Half Time | How often does your team comeback to win?

Down 1-0 Away at Half Time | How often does your team comeback to win?

I am always looking for Sporting trends and a good example is Trap 1 in the Greyhound Derby at Wimbledon where Trap 1 failed to win from 1985 till 2011. In 2009 the Hoodoo struck when Fear Zafonic (Trap 1) was backed into 1.01 on Betfair  just as it was caught on the line. Another good trend which was broken is Fulham did not score for 32 games in a row when 0-0 in the Premiership on or after 80 minutes. …
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